Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
600 am CDT Mon Oct 24 2016
issued at 312 am CDT Monday Oct 24 2016
Short range (today through Wednesday night):
Modest cold air advection is occurring early this morning behind a
cold front that moved through the forecast area last night. However,
this cold air advection will be short-lived as winds veer from the north to the
east this morning. This will lead to a cooler day than we
experienced on Sunday however, temperatures will still be mild for
late October standards. Expect highs in the mid 60s to near 70.
Tuesday will be the warmest day of the short range forecast period
as upper level shortwave ridging builds into the region ahead of an
upper level shortwave trough moving into the Western Plains. A
surface low associated with the upper shortwave will move from
eastern Colorado to eastern Nebraska during the day lifting a warm
front across the area. This will allow highs to rise into the mid
60s (north) to the mid 70s (south). A few warm air advection showers will be
possible during the day across the northern County Warning Area however the better
chance for precipitation will not occur until Tuesday night. By
Tuesday night the warm front will reside just north of the County Warning Area across
southern Iowa. A 40-50kt southwesterly low level jet will increase and nose
into central Iowa initially developing precipitation north of the
County Warning Area. However, as the surface low moves from eastern Nebraska into
central Iowa Tuesday night, this will drag a trailing cold front
through the area and bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
A few stronger storms CA not be ruled out for extreme northwestern
Missouri in the vicinity of the surface low but otherwise just
general thunderstorms are expected. The cold front will have pushed
through the area by late Wednesday morning bring precipitation to an
end. However, will no discernible cold air behind the front,
temperatures will remain mild with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Extended range (thursday through sunday):
The extended period continues to look dry and generally mild.
Surface high pressure will be in control on Thursday will highs in
the mid 60s to near 70s. However, Thursday night, strong warm air advection will
get underway leading to a warm Friday. Highs Friday will run close
to 15 degrees above normal with highs in the mid 70s to near 80.
Late Friday into Friday night an upper level trough digging from
the northern plains into the upper Midwest will force a quick moving
cold front through the area. The frontal passage will be generally
dry with just the chance for a shower across the extreme
northeastern County Warning Area. Surface high pressure will build into the area on
Saturday but conditions will remain mild with highs in the mid 60s
to near 70. Another quick moving upper shortwave moving through the
upper Midwest will push yet another cold front through the area. The
frontal passage will be dry but, it will return temperatures closer
to normal with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 600 am CDT Monday Oct 24 2016
VFR conds will prevail thru the taf pd with high clouds expected
until late in the pd when increasing mid-lvl clouds will mov into the
terminals. Winds will be out of the NE btn 5-10kts this morning
before veering to the east around 10kts this afternoon. Winds will
continue to veer to the southeast tonight while dmshg to 5-10kts.