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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 am CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

issued at 340 am CDT Thursday Oct 27 2016

Tranquil and mild conditions will be the rule for the bulk of the
forecast period until thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This morning surface high pressure resides over the
area leading to light winds. The western County Warning Area is experiencing mainly
clear skies with just a few high clouds which is adding in fog
development. Consequently a fog advisory is out for eastern Kansas
and western Missouri until 9am. High pressure will remain in control
until late this afternoon. Mixing will be weak by sunny skies will
still allow highs to climb into the 60s to lower 70s. Warm air advection will get
underway this evening keeping winds elevated enough tonight to limit
fog potential. Strong warm air advection will continue on Friday and Saturday
allowing temperatures to rise to 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A
weak shortwave moving through the upper Midwest Saturday night will
force a weak cold front into the area that will stall across the County Warning Area
on Sunday. This will drop temperatures a bit however, they will
still be nearly 10 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Sunday night the stall front will lift back north as a
warm front. Strong warm air advection on Monday will again drive temperatures well
above normal but will make for some very pleasant weather for trick-
or-treaters. Expect highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Monday night,
another upper level shortwave moving through the upper Midwest will
drive another cold front into the area which will again stall across
central Missouri. This will drop temperatures into the upper 60s to
mid 70s on Tuesday. Tuesday night a low level jet will develop across the
Southern Plains overriding the frontal boundary and providing the
lift for thunderstorm development. These thunderstorms will then
continue into Wednesday with temperatures in the mid 60s to lower


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 636 am CDT Thursday Oct 27 2016

The main concern for aviators this taf cycle will be for reduced
vsbys with fog this morning thru 15z. Vsbys will temporarily drop to
1/4 to 1/2 sm at stj and ixd thru 14z and gradually improve thru
14z-16z. Mci and mkc will experience vsbys btn 4-6sm thru 14z.
Otrw...conditions will remain VFR with just a few high clouds thru
the remainder of the taf pd. Winds this morning will be lgt and vrb
before picking up out of the south-southeast btn 5-10kts this afternoon.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for ksz025-057-

MO...dense fog advisory until 9 am CDT this morning for moz001-002-




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