Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 keax 232116
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
416 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017
issued at 400 PM CDT Monday Oct 23 2017
Windy conditions and fire weather concerns early in the forecast
period, then colder conditions to bring first hard freeze this
season on Saturday morning.
Strong cold front has well south into Texas and tight gradient
will continue to bring strong winds through the next couple of
days. Not expecting much relief overnight through the cwa, as
decoupling not likely. The models show 850mb winds remain around
50kts all night tonight with deep 500mb trough axis from southeast
Minnesota through southern Illinois. Given the criteria for
advisory is sustained 30kts with gusts to 45kts, will hold off on
advisory for now, but we will need to monitor overnight and again
This pattern will keep the Missouri and Kansas in deep
northerly flow through Thursday morning. Dry conditions will
bring increasing fire weather concerns, but will hold off on
headlines for now as winds will diminish somewhat later in the
week. Northwest Missouri needs to be closely watched as it is
drier there and the wind may be more a factor as well.
A second push of even colder air will begin making its way from
western Canada later in the week, so by Friday morning northern
areas of the County Warning Area will be around 32 deg f. By Saturday morning we
will see middle 20s north to around 30 deg f south.
No precipitation is expected for the next 7 days.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1235 PM CDT Monday Oct 23 2017
Strong winds from the northwest will continue through the
afternoon across the terminals. By around 00z expect winds to
diminish and back slightly to around 300 degree. Speeds should taper
to around 10kts with gusts less than 20kts overnight. VFR
conditions will prevail.