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000 
FXUS63 KEAX 261124
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 350 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

Yesterday's cold front, currently along a line from Kirksville to
Butler MO, has shifted winds to the northwest and is ushering in 
cooler temperatures. Highs should only make it to the upper 50s in
central MO and low 50s in western MO/eastern KS. Post-frontal 
showers, mainly south and east of I-35, are expected to linger for
most of the day as the upper-level trough moves through. Storms 
will be possible in south-central and eastern MO and a couple 
could become strong with small hail and gusty winds being the 
primary concerns. Late tonight, skies will begin to clear and 
temperatures are expected to drop below normal across KS and 
western MO. In KS and far western MO temperatures may dip into the
mid to upper 30s and therefore, could see some patchy frost early
Thursday morning. Did not issue a frost advisory at this time
because it seems to be patchy but will re-evaluate later today.

The dry weather will be short-lived, due to an active weather 
pattern setting up in the Intermountain West. Thursday evening, on 
and off rain chances return as a broad upper-level trough begins 
to deepen and send energy pulses over the area. At the surface, a 
low pressure system will be taking shape, advecting warmer air and
moisture into the area. On Friday, the surface low and cold front
will move through our area. The front will stall out, most likely
in southern MO, and will be the focal point for showers and 
storms for the rest of the weekend. The boundary may be where the 
rain is most widespread and continuous, but northern MO and KS 
will still see a fair share of rain, thanks to the upper level 
trough providing the required lift. The boundary won't move very 
much until Sunday, when the upper-level trough finally enters the 
Central Plains. The system will become negatively tilted and move 
to the north-northeast, exiting the area by Monday. Over the 
entire weekend, areas along and south of I-70 may see 2-3 inches 
or more of rain, with areas north of I-70 seeing up to 2 inches of
rain. Therefore, flooding could be a concern, especially along 
and south of I-44. 

Things will dry out Monday, but another system looks to return 
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT WED APR 26 2017

IFR ceilings are expected for the first part of the period before
MVFR ceilings move in later this morning from the west-northwest.
This evening, ceilings will lift to VFR as the low pressure exits
MO. After midnight, skies will begin to clear from west to east 
and remain clear for the remainder of the period. As far as 
precipitation, there are still some scattered showers across the 
area that will continue to push to the northeast before another 
round of showers enters the area from the southwest late this 
morning. This round should stay mainly south and east of I-35 in 
both KS and MO. Showers are expected to exit the forecast area 
overnight tonight with the low pressure system. The northwesterly 
winds have been a little gusty overnight in the wake of the cold 
front and will stay this way until sunset tonight. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

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