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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
328 am CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

issued at 325 am CDT Wednesday Oct 26 2016

Active weather will affect the area today however, the remainder of
the forecast period will be mild and dry until the very end of the
period. Last night, storms developed out ahead of a cold front
across southeastern Nebraska into central Kansas as a low level jet
strengthened. These storms have progressed eastward early this
morning and have weakened as they moved into the forecast area. These
showers and thunderstorms are expected to push slowly east across the
forecast area this morning and weaken as they do. Meanwhile, the
front which storms developed ahead of, continues to lag back to the
west extending from near Omaha to Dodge City. This front will also push
slowly eastward today and may be the focus for thunderstorms
developing across the extreme southeastern County Warning Area this afternoon.
Forcing and shear will be weak however, instability will be
sufficient enough for storms with around 1000j/kg of MUCAPE. However,
by tonight, the front will push east of the area and surface high
pressure will begin to build into the region. Highs today will be in
the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Conditions then look very mild and dry to close out the week and
into the weekend. Thursday, high pressure will remain in control
until later in the day when warm air advection will get underway. Expect highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Friday will be the warmest day of the
forecast period as upper level ridging builds into the area aloft and
strong warm air advection will prevail at the surface. Highs will rise into the mid
70s to lower 80s. Saturday a weak cold front will sag into the area
and become stationary over the area through Sunday. Highs Saturday
will still reach the mid to upper 70s but only reach the mid 60s to
mid 70s Sunday which is still 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Sunday
night the stalled front will lift north of the area as a warm front
and warm air advection will again bring very warm temperatures into the area on
Monday. Highs Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s. A cold front
moving through the area on Tuesday will bring the next chance for
thunderstorms however, temperatures will remain above normal in the
mid 60s to lower 70s.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1205 am CDT Wednesday Oct 26 2016

A scattered to broken band of convection is expected to move across
northwest and west central MO and adjacent eastern Kansas overnight.
Expect VFR conditions except in pockets of stronger convection where
brief MVFR visibilities possible. MVFR ceilings expected to
eventually form over north central and northeast MO Wednesday
morning. Scattered morning convection is also likely from northeast
into central MO before exiting to the east by early afternoon.

Winds will generally be from the south to southwest prior to a weak
cold front sweeping through in the afternoon. Winds behind this front
will veer to the northwest and eventually north later in the evening
and average around 10 mph.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...



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