Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 keax 240528 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1128 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

issued at 309 PM CST Thursday Feb 23 2017

Main focus in the short term will be precipitation chances this
afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching surface low. The
slower and more southward track of the low has prevented the sfc
warm front from making much progress into the County Warning Area today, leaving
only elevated frontogenesis and warm air advection as support for light rain
showers. Models indicate a small amount of instability above the
surface inversion; however, thus far it has not been enough to
support much vertical growth or lightning. Have maintained a
possibility of showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-70,
and primarily focused north of Highway-36, especially this evening
when hi-res models have consistently indicated the development of
more robust showers/storms on the northwest side of the surface
low over north central Kansas. Any storms that develop in that area
could trek northeast into our County Warning Area and have the potential to become
strong -- albeit elevated -- as the system becomes more stacked,
temperatures aloft decrease, and instability builds northward this
evening. Deep layer shear, even disregarding the lowest 1 km,
will be on the order of 50-60 kts and would support rotation
should any more robust cells develop. There is also a weak signal
for showers developing closer to the surface low (further south)
which will trek directly through the County Warning Area and through the kc area;
however, shallower lapse rates and a much stronger cap, as well
as weaker shear, will likely keep these showers unimpressive
should they develop.

After the surface low pushes through the County Warning Area tonight, colder air
and moisture will begin to sweep in behind. Light snow is possible
as far south as I-70, but any accumulations should be confined to
the MO/Iowa border and will still add up to less than an inch. Low
temperatures will fall into the 20s area-wide Friday night, which
may damage any early-sprouting blossoms. Temperatures will remain
seasonable on Saturday, then will begin a slow climb into the
beginning of the work week.

Previous runs of the GFS kept cold air lingering longer into
Sunday, which was a bit of a concern as a shortwave trough digs
into the region on sunday; however, the most recent GFS run has
come into better agreement with the other models and brings
temperatures into the mid to upper 40s by Sunday afternoon. That
shortwave trough may bring a light, slushy rain/snow mix into the
region early Sunday morning before temperatures aloft begin to
warm, but most precipitation is focused where temperatures are
warmer, and rising temperatures would melt any accumulation
quickly during the day. A few other weak waves follow behind into
next week, but no good chances for precipitation ever come
together over the County Warning Area and temperatures overall continue to look
above normal through the end of the forecast period.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1128 PM CST Thursday Feb 23 2017

A low pressure system lifting northeast across Missouri will allow
low clouds and reduced surface visible to sweep across some of the
terminals early Friday morning. Cloud cover will likely persist
through Friday as more showers approach from the northwest, but
the low end IFR and LIFR conditions should lift northeast with the
surface low early this morning, leaving MVFR clouds behind for
the day Friday. Otherwise, winds will be rather breezy from the
northwest through Friday.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations