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fxus63 keax 121744 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1144 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

issued at 238 am CST Tuesday Nov 12 2019

Bitterly cold temperatures remain fixed over the area today as a
broad surface ridge slowly settles south into the region underneath
clear skies. Near-record low temperatures will await those heading
out the door this morning with wind chill values at or below 0
degrees. Also, a few lingering slick spots on the roadways and
walking surfaces are possible this morning. The Silver lining is
that southerly surface flow will return this afternoon as the
surface ridge moves downstream. With such a low starting point,
however, afternoon highs will once again remain below freezing
throughout the area, only rising to the upper 20s across the
western counties and lower 20s east. Will see more favorable
temperature trends, albeit still below seasonal values, by
Wednesday through the late work week.

A subsequent cold front will advance through the area Wednesday
night, though with the lingering dry air mass in place, moisture
availability will be limited to the mid-levels. Model guidance
remains in good agreement in keeping all precipitation across
central to southern Iowa, though may see a few sprinkles or even
flurries Wednesday afternoon/evening across northern Missouri.
Afternoon highs in the wake of the front Thursday will be limited to
the mid to upper 30s across most of the area, with values rising to
the lower 40s over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Late-week temperature trends will slowly rise and begin a multi-day
period of high temps reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s through the
weekend and extending into next week. Long-term trends beyond
this period also indicate a more notable warming period through
late November.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1143 am CST Tuesday Nov 12 2019

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with just a few to sct
high clouds. Otrw...winds will increase out of the south overnight
becmg gusty tomorrow morning. There may be a window of low level wind shear
overnight into early tomorrow morning before the gusts pick up
but it looks too marginal for taf inclusion at this time.


Eax watches/warnings/advisories...

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