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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Discussion...
issued at 327 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Regional water vapor imagery depicting an upper-level low
pressure system over western Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon,
with isolated to scattered shower activity downstream over the
lower Missouri Vly and east-Central Plains. Despite the radar
appearance this afternoon, stubborn dry low-level air has kept
steady precipitation at Bay so far today, and latest radar trends
across eastern Kansas suggest there will be a break in activity
for a few hours before developing activity across central Kansas
finally slides east later this afternoon and evening. Once this
occurs, expect on and off shwrs to persist through the night, with
a few claps of thunder not out of the whelm of possibilities
thanks to weak instability as seen on various forecast soundings.
Fortunately with the ongoing river flooding occurring, we
shouldn't see heavy rain amounts with most areas likely remaining
under a half inch through Sunday.

Speaking of Sunday, aforementioned upper low will traverse our
region with best chances for shwrs and storms shifting east of
Route 65 through the morning hours. Again, some instability will
be present, however better core of moisture return will remain
south and east of the area which should prevent any developing
storms from getting too far out of hand. Rain should finally move
east of the forecast area Sunday evening which should lead to a
few days of dry weather for the first half of the work week before
the next round of precipitation arrives on Thursday. This will
mark the beginning of an unsettled period which should persist
through the conclusion of the forecast period as a series of
disturbances bring reoccurring rain chances through next weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Off and on rain showers are expected this evening into the
overnight hours, with MVFR ceilings developing around 03z Sunday
morning. A brief period of IFR ceilings are possible early Sunday
near sunrise as precipitation comes to an end, though the spatial
extent of this development remains in question. MVFR ceilings
will then persist through the remainder of the forecast period.
Surface winds will continue to veer with time, slackening by
Sunday morning as a surface low pushes to the northeast of the
region.

&&

Eax watches/warnings/advisories...
Kansas...none.
MO...none.
&&

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