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fxus63 kdvn 170414 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities Iowa Illinois
1114 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

..aviation update...

issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

High pressure brought clear skies and seasonable temps this
afternoon into the lower to middle 60s.


Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

This evening through Tuesday

Not as cold tonight due to steady, but light, south-southwest sfc winds.
Forecast lows are in the lower to middle 40s. Another very nice
day expected tomorrow with highs near 70 f. Winds will be out of
the SW between 10-20 mph with occasional higher gusts. Uttech

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Mainly quiet weather until the weekend with a slow warming trend.

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen Tuesday night through Thursday
as the main storm track remains close to the Canadian border. A dry
frontal passage is forecast to move through the area on
Wednesday night/Thursday with only a change in wind direction.

Thursday night on...

The quiet and dry conditions will continue Thursday night through
Friday night. Attention then turns to the approaching storm system
for the weekend.

Timing and initial moisture availability are the main questions for
the weekend system. On the overall large scale picture, there is
reasonable agreement among the models that the main precipitation
event will be Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Right now the model consensus has slight chance to chance pops along
and west of the Mississippi for the daylight hours Saturday.
Internally however, the models indicate the atmosphere is still
somewhat dry and the overall forcing is very weak. Thus the
possibility does exist that daytime Saturday might be dry for much
if not all of the area, especially if the system is slower than what
the models indicate.

Saturday night/Sunday the model consensus has likely to categorical
pops and then chance to likely pops respectively.

The model consensus has dry conditions Sunday night as high pressure
moves through the area.

On Monday a weak upper level disturbance is forecast to move through
in the fast northwest flow aloft. Moisture availability is in
question but the model consensus has slight chance pops for the
northeast third of the area.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1112 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Though VFR / clear weather will last through the next 24 hours,
there remains low- level wind shear at kcid, kdbq, and kmli for
late tonight into early morning as west-southwest winds around 2 kft above ground level
increase to 30-40 kts is occurring. This will dissipate around
sunrise Tuesday.


Dvn watches/warnings/advisories...


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