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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Quad Cities Iowa Illinois
631 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

..aviation update...

issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

18z surface data has a weak boundary running from north central Iowa
near kaxa into central Indiana. Dew points were in the 50s across
the upper Great Lakes with 60s from the Ohio Valley into the plains.
Dew points in the 70s ran from the lower Ohio Valley to the Gulf


Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Scattered convection, mainly in the form of showers, will continue
through late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible that
will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall.

This evening, isolated to scattered convection will continue through
sunset and then slowly dissipate through midnight. The convection
will be mainly in the form of showers but a couple of thunderstorms
will still be possible through mid-evening.

Late tonight, dry conditions are expected. Some patchy fog may be
possible through sunrise, especially in river valleys and low lying

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area Sunday
morning. Sunday afternoon, isolated showers and possibly a
thunderstorm may develop across the area. Temperatures should be
close to normal.

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Sunday night...12z Sat GFS/European model (ecmwf) run shows skies should remain dry
Sunday night with scattered thunderstorms moving into the area later
on Monday as an upper level shortwave moves toward the Mississippi
Valley. Overnight low temperatutres will be in the mid 60s.

Monday and Tuesday...organized thunderstorms are possible as several
upper level shortwaves ride along the periphery of an upper level
ridge situated just north of the region. The main threat from these
thunderstorms will be localized heavy rain. The 12z Sat GFS run
generates mean precipitable water values around 2.0 inches from
Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will be
warm both days with highs in mid to upper 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...hazy, hot, and humid is the theme for this
time period. 12z Sat superblend model run shows that isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible with very hot and humid
conditions as an upper level ridge remains over the center of the
County. 500 millibar heights climb to 594 decameters over much of
the Midwest with 850 millibar temperatures between +21 and +23
degrees celsius on both days. High temperatures will be in the lower
90s with dewpoint temperatures in the 70s generating heat indices
around 100 degrees.

Friday and Saturday...long term consensus models show a cold front
will move through the region on Friday bringing slightly cooler and
drier air into the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms could
accompany the frontal passage. Saturday looks mainly dry as high
pressure builds into the upper Midwest. Temperatures will be near
normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Skies will become fair this evening and last through Sunday as weak
high pressure resides over the region. Some patchy light fog may develop
overnight until an hour or so after sunrise with mostly MVFR conditions.
Wind will be light and tend to favor the east and then southeast on


Dvn watches/warnings/advisories...



short term...08
long term...Kuhl

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