Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kdtx 250751
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan
351 am EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
The end of the long stretch of dry air is drawing near as a broad
and deep longwave trough develops over the western two thirds of the
country. Plenty of energy within this trough as 150+ knot jet feeds
into it out of the North Pacific. For the most part, the area will
remain dry through Wednesday evening as the downstream ridge
steepens in response to this trough. One caveat to this will be a
short period this morning when a band of moisture in a region of
isentropic ascent lifting out ahead of the cutoff low over the southeast
conus clips the eastern Great Lakes. Looks like the moisture will be
largely in the 4-10kft layer with dry resident airmass at the
surface needing to be worked over to get precip to reach the ground.
Looks like the wind field will quickly reorient themselves as the
low drifts up the coast today which will pull the moisture and
forcing back east of the region. So just a brief period this morning
of a slight chance of light rain in the forecast around the eastern
thumb, but could end up being more virga than anything.
Will keep a good deal of clouds around today with southeasterly flow
which will moderate temperatures somewhat, but the resident airmass
has proven to be good for temps nearing 70. So expectations are for
much the same, hedging a little lower along the Lake Shadow for our
eastern locations. Lows tonight will be on the mild side, mostly in
the low 50s, as dewpoints climb with sustained southeasterly flow.
Strong wave will be entering the base of the longwave trough on
Wednesday which will tighten the SW gradient between the trough and
East Coast ridge. Initially this will set up the moisture and
instability corridor over western Michigan and WI. Strong warm air advection with winds
turning more to the south will send temperatures up toward 80 as 700
to 850mb warm layer spikes in the mid teens. This warm layer should
cap off any attempts at showers drifting east into the area or
developing overhead with the strong mid/upper level lapse rates and
weak upper level instability. Having said that, the SW to NE slope
of the moisture/instability plume may end up clipping part of the
Saginaw Valley thus they will have a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast.
Best activity over Southeast Michigan will occur on Thursday as a wave noted
earlier exits the base of the trough and lift northeastward into the
Great Lakes. The associated surface low will pull a cold front
across lower Michigan. Even a few days out, models are struggling to come
together on orientation of the jet streaks and strength of the
trough. Still enough support with an afternoon cold front, a few
hundred j/kg of cape, shear values over 40 knots, and good moisture
to support high chance pops for showers and thunderstorms.
May get a brief break from showers on Friday before the trough
ejects the next few waves through the weekend. Models do agree with
bringing rain in Saturday ahead of the next low, persisting through
A long duration of moderate southeasterly flow will exist through
Wednesday as the region remains between exiting high pressure and
low pressue lifting into the mid Mississippi Valley. Sustained wind
of 15 to 20 knots at times, but with a higher degree of stability
under this pattern limiting the gust potential. Winds turn
southwesterly as low pressure lifts into Great Lakes on Thursday.
issued at 1154 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Will maintain a gradual thickening/lowering of cigs overnight into
Tuesday as Atlantic moisture pivots back northwest into area around
upper low to the south/southeast. Given extremely dry conditions in
place...per 00z DTX sounding...would not expect lowest cigs to go
much below the cusp of MVFR/VFR by Tuesday morning. Easterly
winds...which have become somewhat gusty late this evening...should
ease into Tuesday.
For dtw...ceilings will approach 5kft in the 06z-08z period and
most likely drop below 10z-20z as moisture backs northwest into
area tonight. A general east/northeast flow will persist into
Tuesday, but some veering to the southeast will occur after 18z.
//Dtw threshold probabilities...
* medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft overnight, high early
Tuesday morning into afternoon.
Lake St Clair...none.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...none.