Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kdtx 271020
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan
620 am EDT Thu Jul 27 2017
Showers with isolated thunder will work through kmbs/kfnt early in
the forecast along slowly advancing cold front. While some activity
will be possible further south later today, confidence in the extent
of coverage remains dubious. MVFR/lower VFR stratus is poised to
settle through the area behind this front with the lowest cigs kmbs.
While skies may very well scatter out from late afternoon into the
evening as the front continues into the Ohio Valley, developing cool
northeast flow off of Lake Huron will most likely bring some cigs
For dtw...ceilings around 5kft will be possible in wake of passing
cold front later this morning into this afternoon. Any showers in
area of front should be isolated this afternoon.
//Dtw threshold probabilities...
* medium in ceilings aob 5000 ft this afternoon.
* Low in thunderstorms this afternoon.
issued at 240 am EDT Thu Jul 27 2017
Weak but wavy cold front trailing the upper trough moving into
Quebec will slowly sink through Southeast Michigan early this
morning and today. Ribbon of higher Theta-E will slide through the
area ahead of the front, helping to trigger showers and
thunderstorms. Radar imagery this morning shows the most organized
areas of showers over northern Michigan and over Lake Michigan,
right along the frontal boundary. These lines will sink into a less
favorable environment over southern Michigan where warmer air aloft
resides, and expect convection to weaken this morning. The lack of
cold air aloft will be a deterring factor for redevelopment along
the cold front later today as it sinks southward. Instability looks
limited per rap/hrrr forecast soundings, likely why higher-res model
output is showing low coverage of showers/tstorms. Will only keep
probability of precipitation at a scattered coverage today. Biggest threat from storms will
be heavy downpours. The front/surface trough will slide south of the
Michigan state line this evening, ending the threat for convection.
Next upper wave on track to dive through the area is currently
showing a nice presentation on water vapor imagery over southern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This wave will deepen as it encounters better
jet support in a right entrance region, before it dives through
lower Michigan Friday. Forcing and -16c cold pool at h500 will try
to promote shower/tstorm development as moisture wraps around
deepening low pressure over the Ohio Valley. Moisture layer isn't
that deep though per model soundings, and looks to really limit
coverage. The deepening low will also increase the northerly
pressure gradient over the region, as high pressure also builds into
the northern Great Lakes. Winds will become a little gusty, and cold
air advection will become reinforced by flow off Lake Huron, keeping
Max temperatures in the 70s for most locations.
High pressure will build over the area for the weekend, bringing
tranquil weather and a warming trend to temperatures. The beginning
of the work week looks fairly dry as well, with the next good chance
for showers/tstorms looking to hold off until mid-week when a cold
front drops through the area.
Southwest winds will decrease during the night as a slow moving
front slides south across Lake Huron. This front will stall over
southern Michigan on Thursday. Post frontal northerly winds will
increase during the course of the day across Southern Lake Huron.
Winds will turn northeast into Saginaw Bay. Funneling across the
relatively warm waters of the Bay will support an uptick in the
winds, likely gusting over 20 knots. This may support Small Craft
Advisory conditions. Northeast winds will actually increase Thursday
night into Friday as high pressure expands across the northern Great
Lakes while low pressure holds fairly steady across the Ohio Valley.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely over most of the
nearshore waters during this period. The gradient will then relax on
Friday as the high expands into the eastern Great Lakes. This will
allow winds and waves to decrease.
Lake St Clair...none.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...none.