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000 
FXUS63 KDTX 251948
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
348 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery confirms the accelerated progression of the upper 
level trough during the afternoon. This is occurring as mid level 
deformation matures and expands up the spine of Lake Huron with a 
ragged western fringe as depicted in radar composite. This will 
allow some for some refinement to the POP forecast for the rest of 
the afternoon through mid evening when matched up with hi res model 
guidance. The main adjustment will be to sharpen the gradient from 
categorical POPs along the Thumb shoreline down to chance interior. 
A shower component will remain to be accounted for there as daytime 
heating converts drizzle production to scattered showers within the 
inverted surface trough extending over southern Lower Michigan. Both 
the showers over interior sections and the primary area of 
deformation will have to be accounted for through mid evening before 
the upper trough moves far enough eastward to bring an end to 
rainfall in our area. That will leave broken to overcast cloud cover 
to persist overnight through Friday morning as boundary layer 
moisture remains high within the lingering cyclonic low level flow. 
The clouds will help keep morning lows on the mild side despite 
northerly surface wind trailing the system, and also keep readings 
on the cool side of normal during Friday, although expect to see 
highs touch 70 as some breaks develop in the clouds mid to late 
afternoon. 

Today's model runs continue to trend toward some consensus on the 
central Rockies system as it moves into the Plains and possibly into 
the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. There is some better 
agreement in terms of mean RH areal coverage while solutions on 
intensity have considerable spread due to varying amounts of upscale 
convective growth. This alone is cause for a conservative approach 
to POPs over southern Michigan with low end chance POPs north to 
around 40 percent toward the Ohio border. The ECMWF and Canadian 
solutions appear more trustworthy managing convective growth and 
show the wave sliding on a more southward track and giving the Ohio 
border region the best chance of a glancing shot of rain or 
convective remnants. The larger scale upper ridge centered directly 
over the Great Lakes, anchored by upper lows over central Canada and 
the New England coast, will do a lot to steer the small scale low 
pressure system southward should the intensity of the wave prove 
weaker than shown by the NAM and GFS.

As the long wave pattern evolves through the end of the week, the 
upper low over central Canada will extend all the way into the 
central Plains by Saturday. This will provide a more favorable 
environment for cyclogenesis associated with short wave energy that 
is projected to move into the Great Lakes by Sunday. There is more 
confidence in the model solutions at this time frame compared to 
earlier in the Friday night-Saturday period. A large scale upper 
trough guiding short wave energy and associated surface features 
through the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers and 
thunderstorms given afternoon timing in current global model 
solutions. Passage of the cold front will bring a modest cooling 
trend from highs near 80 to readings closer to 70 to start next week.
Another large cut-off low is then projected to develop over northern
Ontario by Tuesday and keep conditions cool and unsettled over the 
Great Lakes through next week.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate northeast winds will ease into this evening and back to the 
north as low pressure progresses into the eastern Great Lakes. 
Thumb. Hence, the Small Craft Advisory from the tip of the Thumb 
through Saginaw Bay will be cancelled with this forecast package. 
Modest northwest flow then takes hold on Friday. A weak gradient 
will keep wind and wave activity on the lower side heading into the 
holiday weekend. That said, several low pressure systems will bring 
unsettled conditions at times. The first will bring some potential 
of rain, generally south of Lake Huron, late Friday night into early 
Saturday. Meanwhile, the second low will bring the potential for a 
more widespread area of rain on Sunday with some activity perhaps 
lingering into Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017 

AVIATION...

Low level moisture will remain anchored over area on backside of low 
pressure as it lifts from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great 
Lakes. Ceilings should generally remain IFR with occasional MVFR. 
Persistent light showers this morning from KDET/KDTW/KYIP will fade 
into the beginning of the forecast, but HRRR/RUC13 suggest increased 
coverage mid/late afternoon as diurnal heating peaks and convergence 
along inverted trough extending NNW from low pressure provides lift 
for scattered convection (likely showers given lack of instability).
This activity will fade this evening with low ceilings into Friday 
morning before drier westerly flow begins to bring improvement.

For DTW...Coverage of showers will be less persistent post-18z, but 
may increase again for a time 21z-01z as diurnal instability max 
allows for some reformation of showers. Ceilings will oscillate 
between IFR and MVFR, trending more often to IFR (especially by 
tonight). Slow/steady improvement is expected on Friday.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... 

* High for cigs below 5000 ft through Friday morning.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......DG

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