Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kdtx 220847
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac Michigan
347 am EST Mon Jan 22 2018
Early morning fog will persist several more hours until a warm front
lifts north and showers fill in across the area. Overall
visibilities have improved over the last few hours with only
sporadic 1/4sm observations being noted across Southeast Michigan. Though fog
will remain across the area for several hours, only locally dense
fog is expected here on out, thus the headline will expire at 4am
and we'll handle any brief pockets of dense fog with spss.
Active stretch of weather to start the new work week as a dynamic
and very mature low/mid level low over the plains continues it's
March toward the Great Lakes. Models in good agreement with the
center of the low tracking through mid Michigan late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Several rounds of rain showers will pass through the region
associated with this low and the several fronts connected to it.
Timing these periods of showers and possible dry slots seems to be
one of the biggest forecast challenges early on. Model soundings
show temperatures above freezing across all of Southeast Michigan up through
about 700mb keeping ptype all liquid through Tuesday morning.
In advance of the low, the lead wings of isentropic ascent along a
warm front, current draped just south of the Michigan border, will provide
the first round of rain showers this morning. The band of showers
has already come together as seen on regional radar mosaic and
should lift into the state by about 09z. Strong low level jet
starting to nose into SW lower Michigan should keep this band progressive
lifting it north of the M59 corridor by 17z as the warm front itself
pushes north. Good moisture and forcing should allow a quick quarter
inch of qpf with this band as it lifts through.
Models vary with handling the pops during the daytime hours as it
appears there is 2 distinct dry slots rotating about the low. First
one is lifting northward just ahead of the first cold front and
could clip the Metro Detroit area this afternoon from about 17-20z.
Coverage of showers will decrease but still could see some scattered
light showers. The cold front them moves through and is losing its
definition due to occluding processes and distance from the low.
Still should see a second batch of Showers Pass east through the
area after 20z. Meanwhile, with the warm front stalling over mid Michigan
the east west oriented isentropic band could stall across the
Saginaw Valley and thumb leading to rain through most of the day.
The next dry slot then looks to lift up and through southern Michigan
between about 00-06z Tuesday ahead of the secondary cold front
located much closer to the low. Water vapor imagery shows this dry
slot very well so the only question is do showers start bubbling up
and filling back into the dry slot as its sliding though? In terms
of the forecast, will recognize the dry slots with chance pops and
highlight the frontal bands with likely or categorical pops.
The center of the low and mid level pv Max will keep at least
scattered showers around through the rest of the night.
Northwesterly winds on the backside of the low will usher in a
colder airmass but still plenty of moisture to work with as the
deformation band passes through on Tuesday. We will be dealing with
a cooling boundary layer which could bring about a mix of rain and
snow later in the day. At this point still expecting any snow
accumulations to be on the light side as change over won't occur til
waning hours of the event late Tuesday evening.
Event total rainfall amounts should range from around a half inch
near the Ohio border to around 1 inch north of i69. This much
rainfall over frozen ground with recent snow melt could cause some
flooding concerns. Look for area rivers to rise with runoff and
ponding in low lying areas also seems quite probable.
Quiet weather returns through the mid/late week as ridging builds
into the region. Temps will fall back to late January normals with
highs around freezing and lows in the 20s. Models advertising the
next system to arrive over the weekend. Model consensus currently
points toward another warm event across lower Michigan as the surface low
is north of the area pulling warm air back up through the region.
Low pressure will track toward the central Great Lakes today and
tonight, reaching the Central Lake Huron waters by Tuesday morning.
Easterly winds will strengthen today as this system approaching,
leading to a period of gales over the north half of Lake Huron this
afternoon and evening. The system will also produce widespread
coverage of precipitation, primarily rain from Saginaw Bay southward
and a wintry mix to the north. Wind will diminish as the low moves
through Central Lake Huron overnight and Tuesday. Northwest wind
trailing the system could approach gales briefly Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Winds will ease by Wednesday as weak high pressure
builds into the region.
Mild and moist conditions across the region will result in periodic
bouts of rainfall through the daylight period. This environment
will also work to to melt any remaining snow cover while the ground
remains mostly frozen. Efficient runoff from both the melting snow
and rainfall could result in ponding of water on roads and other
prone areas. Rivers, creeks and streams around the region could also
become elevated due to runoff. Total rainfall is expected to be
around 1 inch through Monday night, with most falling during the
issued at 1156 PM EST sun Jan 21 2018
Saturation, clouds, fog has developed aggressively over southeastern
Michigan prior to nightfall immediately on the cool side of a
surface warm front that is draped across portions of Northern Ohio.
This has led to dense fog at the Detroit terminals. Forecast
soundings and plan view perspective of some parameters support dense
fog to remain in place over southeastern Michigan through
approximately 09z tonight. At that time, widespread rain is expected
to lift northward through the area which will support some
disruption to near surface layer. What remains lower confidence is
how progressive or how far northward the dense fog will make it
during the early stages of tonight because the warm front will be
slow to move and some easterly flow may advect some drier air north
of Metro Detroit. Widespread rain is expected to lift from south to
north between 09-15z before a dry slot causes low level moisture to
strip out. The exception will be mbs, where widespread rain is
expected throughout the day. Have went aggressive with IFR and LIFR
conditions within the rain tomorrow for kfnt and kmbs. A significant
dry slot will then be a main influence over aviation weather through
late Monday night.
For dtw...dense fog is expected to be in place through approximately
09z, when widespread rain will then lift into the terminal.
Widespread rain 09-16z transitioning to a period of VFR conditions
Monday afternoon. A period of showers with some IFR will again be
possible by Monday evening.
/Dtw threshold probabilities...
* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less through Monday.
* High for visibility less than 1/2 mile tonight.
* High for ceiling 200 feet or less tonight.
* High for rain as precipitation type tonight and Monday.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 10 am this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for
Lake St Clair...none.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...none.