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afddmx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa
1212 am CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Short term.../tonight through Thursday/
issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

19z radar had a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over north
central Iowa that was being aided by a pv anomaly moving across
southern Minnesota and to a lesser extent 850mb warm air advection.
18z Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis showed 1500 to 3000 j/kg of MLCAPE in the warm
sector with around 30 to 40 knots of shear. A subtle shortwave
moving through central Nebraska will help to provide lift for
scattered thunderstorms. While discrete cells with all modes of
severe weather is possible initially, expect storms to become more
linear with more of a damaging wind and hail threat through this
evening. Some of the short terms models have shown the possibility
for heavy rainfall over southern Iowa overnight as a cold front
stalls out. This is shown with the hrrr, rap, WRF-arw and nmm cores
having 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts. This may lead to
isolated flash flooding threat tonight and even if that does not
come to fruition, this rainfall along with expected rainfall in the
coming days may prime southern Iowa for flash flooding.

Next concern is Thursday afternoon convection which is expected to
bring another round of severe weather and heavy rainfall to the
state, especially southern portions. By late tomorrow afternoon,
cape values will be between 2000 and 3000 j/kg with deep layer shear
of 40 to 50 knots, which is more than sufficient for supercells.
With this in mind and warm front draped across the area, supercells
with the potential for isolated tornadoes and large hail will be
possible in the afternoon and early evening.

Long term.../Thursday night through Wednesday/
issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

The pattern will remain active through the period although the
severe potential should not be as great with gradually building
heights and weaker flow through the cornbelt. An mesoscale convective system could very
well be ongoing at onset somewhere around a warm frontal boundary
sitting along the Iowa/MO border as the current northwest Continental U.S. Short wave
lift reaches the Midwest. With MLCAPES 2500-4000 j/kg and 0-6km
shear 30-50kts that instability/shear parameter space would
certainly suggest discrete supercells, at least initially, are
possible with the potential for the current enhanced risk to be
expanded eastward with time. 0-1km shear and srh values near the
boundary would also support tornadoes, and these values increase
into the evening with the increasing low level jet so all modes of
severe weather are possible. Heavy rain parameters are not
climatologically extreme based on the 00z naefs percentiles but it
may not take that considering what normals are for late June and
the aforementioned synoptic lift. Many models are also suggesting
1-2 maxes so will add heavy rain mention considering the
airmass and degree of moisture transport. The triple point and
front will not move quickly, still likely over southern Iowa by 06z.

The synoptic scale lift should exit to our south and east into
Fri morning although some weak convection may still develop in the
base of the trough and broad lingering low level cyclonic flow,
which could potential also repeat northeast during peak heating
Sat. This should be followed by brief surface ridging and lull and
then quick return flow recovery into sun ahead of another weak northwest
flow wave. This will bring varied degrees of thunderstorm chances
back into the forecast early next week, although neither shear,
instability and heavy rain parameters look remarkable for now.
This will also usher in decreased confidence with the models
having difficulty handling the weakening flow and short wave
progression. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS both depict a weak Missouri Valley
wave into Monday with the GFS slower and stronger than suggested
by the gefs, the ec and its ensembles so some token pops will
linger to account for these possibilities through Tue night.

&&

Aviation.../for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night/
issued at 1212 am CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Much of the storm activity should be done through the night with
additional activity across the area late Thursday. Mainly VFR
conditions expected and could see ceilings drop to MVFR in storms late
in the period. Mainly southwesterly winds expected, then shifting
around to the west to north toward the end to just beyond the
current forecast period.

&&

Dmx watches/warnings/advisories...none.

&&

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