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fxus63 kdmx 222002 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa
302 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Short term.../tonight through Friday/
issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

The focus of the short term forecast is the potential for strong
to severe thunderstorms tonight into early Friday morning.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have festered through
the afternoon across portions of south central Iowa. Convection
has been focused along 20 knot jet axis and weak mesoscale convective vortex tracking
along the Missouri state line.

The next round of thunderstorms will initiate near an advancing
cold front. At 300 PM, front extends near Sioux City to Mason
City. The front will begin to surge southeast with shortwave
aloft moving through the northern plains aiding convective
initiation. Ahead of the front, an unstable airmass is in place
with mu cape values near 1500 j/kg. 0-3 km bulk shear is progged
near 30-45 knots. Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are
expected with damaging winds and hail possible.

Showers and thunderstorms will end over south central Iowa by 6
am Friday. Surface high pressure will build over the Dakotas with
a cooler and drier airmass spreading over the Midwest. A northwest
wind will be increasing during the afternoon with a tightening
pressure gradient. Highs will be unseasonably cool with 70s for
most locations.

Long term.../Friday night through Thursday/
issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Highlights of the extended forecast include a continuation of
below average temperatures through the middle of next week with
chances for precipitation mid to late next week.

Surface high pressure will build from the northern plains into
the Ozarks through Monday. The associated airmass will bring highs
in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s and 50s. Dry conditions are
expected with the exception of Saturday afternoon in north
central Iowa. A shortwave trough digging over the Midwest and
daytime heating will create enough instability for a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms.

An upper ridge begins to build into the plains on Tuesday. The
pressure gradient will begin to increase across the plains ahead
of a leeside trough. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
on the increase with return flow developing along with
temperatures returning to near to above average.


Aviation.../for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon/
issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

While storms have moved away from most taf sites, kdsm will
continue to battle scattered storms early in the 18z issuance
period. Then all taf sites will battle storms this evening with
cold frontal passage. Overall, VFR conditions expected, but may
see conditions fall to MVFR at times, especially with stronger
storms and frontal passage itself. Hints at some fog Post frontal
passage, but confidence in winds going light enough not there to
introduce any at kfod/kmcw/Kalo, so have held off.


Dmx watches/warnings/advisories...

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