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fxus63 kdmx 202313 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa
613 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

..updated for 00z aviation discussion...

Short term.../tonight through Friday/
issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

A weak surface frontal boundary has sagged southward into central
Iowa today and currently stretches roughly along the Highway 30
corridor. There is only a moderate temperature difference across
the boundary to the tune of about five degrees and dewpoints are
essentially the same on either side. Meanwhile a weak mid-level
shortwave is approaching along the South Dakota/Nebraska border,
generating a few light showers from around Sioux Falls down to
Lincoln. Heat indices are in the 100-110 degree range along and
south of the central Iowa frontal boundary in accordance with the
ongoing heat headlines.

There is some question as to whether or not we will see
thunderstorm development this evening associated with peak diurnal
heating. While instability values are very high weak capping
remains in place and there is no real upper-level forcing or
support for convection. Surface winds are weak with very little
convergence along the frontal boundary. Nevertheless, if the cap
can be breached we may see widely scattered thunderstorms near or
just south of the boundary, as we saw yesterday evening, and
slight chance pops have been introduced accordingly. The magnitude
of instability supports a marginal severe weather threat, but
this is limited by the lack of organized forcing or shear. This is
well outlined by Storm Prediction Center products.

As the shortwave approaching from our northwest moves across
northern Iowa overnight, it will gradually draw the surface
boundary northward as a warm front and also support development of
more widespread thunderstorms over northern Iowa overnight.
Likely pops have been maintained after midnight and again there
will be a severe weather risk. Given the high humidity/pwats and
relatively slow forward motion of any storms there is a risk of
locally heavy rainfall, however the topography and antecedent
conditions in this area mitigate any flash flooding threat.

On Friday the boundary and associated convection will continue to
push north/northeastward through the day, possibly clearing our
area into Minnesota, and it will be very hot and humid once again.
Given the orientation of the retreating boundary/storms and
associated heating, forecast heat index values exceed 105 degrees
a little north of the current advisory and west of I-35, so will
add a few counties up there in conjunction with expansion across
the Sioux Falls office forecast area in northwest Iowa.

Long term.../Friday night through Thursday/
issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Area of high pressure to the south still in control of much of the
area to begin the period with the broad upper ridge aloft. Start to
see some dampening of it by late Friday into the weekend, however
thermal ridge to be building in further with +26c at 850 mb by Friday
night across central Iowa. An upper trough to move through southern
Canada Saturday with an associated cold front dropping through the
state late Saturday into Sunday. This will finally break the heat
that has been in place across the state this week. Prior to this
however, a complex of thunderstorms expected to drop through the
northern/eastern portions of the area Friday night. Storms are
expected to develop in the late afternoon/early evening hours across
central Minnesota and ride down the edge of the cap/instability gradient
southeastward. This may clip the northeast/east with potential for
severe storms. Additional development may occur on outflow
boundaries across the northern areas late that night as well when
the low level jet increases with moisture advection right into
northern/eastern Iowa Friday evening. Pwats push to around 2 inches,
so an abundance of moisture around and high freezing levels will
lead to efficient rain production. Storms appear to be progressive
and even with some storms over that area in the past few days, ffg
still 2.5 to 3 inches for 6 hours and 1.5 to 2 inches for 1 hour.
Therefore even with the threat of heavy rainfall, soil conditions
and current flash flood guidance suggests the area should be able to
take some rain before having too many issues. Also storm
Mode/movement appear to be fairly progressive so again will still
monitor for heavy rain potential, but widespread heavy rain appears
low at this time.

850 mb temps drop into the teens by Sunday and remain there into early
next week with much cooler temperatures expected by Monday/Tuesday
with highs only in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Upper ridging builds back
in for the middle of next week, with warmer temperatures building in
again as well. Thermal progs don't suggest temperatures as warm as
currently are in place, but expect highs to climb back into the 80s
and low to mid 90s. Another cool front to drop through the state
late Tuesday into the middle of the week. This boundary will remain
quasi-stationary across the state through the end of next week, so
will bring the next chances for rainfall/storms across the area. The
boundary right now appears to push south of the state toward Friday,
which may trend toward dry conditions just beyond the current
forecast period.


Aviation.../for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening/
issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Main concern this evening is possible thunderstorm development.
Both far western and far eastern Iowa have a thunderstorm at 00z
taf issuance and have noticed recent cumulus development just
east of kdsm. Have not included thunderstorms in the vicinity at this time due to low
confidence in any storm impacting a terminal. However, expect
thunderstorms to increase in coverage after midnight into Friday
morning over northern Iowa and have thunderstorms in the vicinity mentioned. Outside of
thunderstorms, there may even be a small window around sunrise of
patchy fog bringing MVFR visibilities to kmcw and Kalo.


Dmx watches/warnings/advisories...
excessive heat warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for iaz057>062-

Heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for iaz023-024-033>037-


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