Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
345 am CDT Monday Sep 26 2016

Short term...(today through tuesday)
issued at 342 am CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

At 330 am, numerous rain showers were moving through the
Northland. The most widespread rain was across the central portion
of the County Warning Area running north to south. With gusty west winds,
temperatures ranged from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Upper level low pressure will continue to develop over the Lake
Superior region today through Tuesday. As a result, we will
generally see very similar weather conditions today through
Tuesday. Strong west winds today will become more northwest later
today and tonight. Numerous showers will continue to wrap around
the upper level low as it Parks itself over the Lake Superior
region. The most abundant rain showers will generally be across
the northeast half of the cwa, with some drying possible in the
southwest portion of the County Warning Area.

For today, will continue with high pops for much of the area this
morning, and then will maintain high pop's across the northeast
half of the County Warning Area. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s
in spots today and Tuesday, with overnight lows in the 40's. Winds
will gust as high as 35 miles per hour at times, with localized gusts even

Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)
issued at 342 am CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

An upper low exits to the east with high pressure building in across
the upper Midwest towards the weekend. Sunny skies and seasonable to
slightly above normal temperatures through the weekend, with the
next chance for showers Sunday night into Monday as a front
approaches from the west.

On the synoptic scale guidance continues to trend a bit slower
clearing the upper low out of the Great Lakes region mid to late
week, with the past two European model (ecmwf) runs bringing the upper low back to
the region Saturday as it retrogrades from the Ohio Valley north-
northwest towards the upper Great Lakes. This solution, despite
decent run-to-run consistency, seems like an outlier for now, as the
rest of the guidance depicts the upper low moving towards New
England and weakening over the weekend. To the west, a weak upper
level ridges builds across the northern plains following the upper
low, bringing a drier and slightly warmer airmass into the region
late week through the weekend. Highs in the 60s to near 70 Thursday
through Sunday - around ten degrees above normal for the start of
October. Wednesday night will be the coolest of the seven-day as
skies clear out, but the airmass aloft doesn't appear to be
especially chilly, and as such the lows may only fall into the low
40s to upper 30s away from Lake Superior - just about normal. Could
see frost at some of the usual cold spots across northern Minnesota,
but otherwise it looks like most locations will pass their average
frost date without a frost. (Check out our website for frost/freeze
statistics across the Northland.) The lows then slowly rise into the
40s to near 50 late week into the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1233 am CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Upper level trof will slowly works its way across the terminals
through the forecast. Periods of showers will accompany the trof.
MVFR is expected with areas of IFR in the vicinity of more robust
showers. Brd and hyr will be the locations to improve to VFR late
in the afternoon. Gusty surface winds will prevail through the


Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 56 45 55 46 / 80 40 30 10
inl 55 43 53 42 / 80 60 30 0
brd 59 43 58 43 / 10 10 10 0
hyr 55 44 54 45 / 70 40 40 20
asx 58 47 56 48 / 80 70 60 30


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
Ls...Gale Warning until 7 am CDT Tuesday for lsz121-146>148.

Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for lsz144-145.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Tuesday for lsz140>143.



Short term...dap
long term...jjm

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations