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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota
1231 am CDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A fairly quiet afternoon across the forecast area with the
surface ridge now settling over western Iowa, with the ridge axis
extending well up across Minnesota. A very weak trough axis
extends from a surface low over far northern Manitoba, south
through Manitoba to the Dakotas to Wyoming. As of this afternoon
there are not even clouds along the front south of Lake Winnipeg,
but there are some storms and cloud cover farther north. This
front is expected to sag southeast across the Northland tonight
and Tuesday. It should bring some precipitation chances to the
area late tonight, as not only does the front move in, but we get
a weak shortwave that ripples through our upper level flow.
Another ripples through during the day on Tuesday, and combined
with diurnal effects expect stronger storms and more widespread
coverage Tuesday afternoon. Have lowered tonight's min temps as we
are not changing airmass very much and min temps were in the lower
50s in parts of The Arrowhead this morning. Even with the extra
cloud cover with the front we should manage to radiate into the
middle and upper 50s tonight in parts of The Arrowhead and northwest
Wisconsin.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A stubborn stationary front will result in a chance for showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms along and south of the Highway 2
corridor Tuesday night into Wednesday...with a slight chance for
showers and storms continuing through the rest of the work week
along the southern periphery of the County Warning Area. High pressure will build in
from the north resulting in cooler temperatures, perhaps a day or
two actually below normal ending a 10+ day run of above normal
temps. Warming trend late in the weekend into early next week as the
high pressure moves off to the east and south/southwest flow results
in a warm airmass being advected up the Great Plains into the upper
Midwest.

No severe weather expected through the long term. While showers and
few storms are possible mid-week along the front, instability will
be fairly limited - generally less than 500 j/kg MUCAPE. Thus, no
organized convection expected.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1231 am CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Mainly VFR conditions with scattered to isolated thunderstorms
will prevail through much of the period. There may be some patchy
fog tonight and we included in some of the tafs. The rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
will be focused along a weak cold front that will drop out of
Canada into northern Minnesota overnight, becoming nearly
stationary on Tuesday. Have introduced vicinity thunder to the
tafs. However, timing and coverage remain tricky to pin down.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
dlh 62 74 55 74 / 40 10 10 10
inl 56 78 53 78 / 0 0 0 10
brd 62 79 59 79 / 50 30 20 10
hyr 61 80 57 78 / 40 40 20 20
asx 62 76 56 76 / 40 20 10 20

&&

Dlh watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...none.
Minnesota...none.
Ls...none.
&&

$$

Short term...le
long term...jjm
aviation...graning/melde

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