Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
620 am CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

..updated aviation discussion...

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 219 am CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Thunderstorms will continue for a few more hours at least as the
850 moisture transport was in a favorable setup to keep the mesoscale convective system
moving across the area during the overnight hours. The convective
allowing models show some semblance of an mesoscale convective vortex lasting through the
mid morning hours. Then the next issue will be to figure just how
much of an effect the outflow boundary and previous rainfall will
have on lowering highs for this afternoon compared to yesterday.
The NAM 4km/nmm are consistent on redeveloping convection in the
panhandles later this evening once again, with any activity
farther north remaining mainly isolated.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 219 am CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

No significant changes to the extended period, as main focus was
on active weather. Temperatures continue to be expected around
climatological highs and lows. Upper flow transitions slowly from
broad weak westerly to more northwest by end of week with opportunities
for NW flow impulses.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 619 am CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Early morning convection will continue to move east into central
Kansas through 15z Monday as an mesoscale convective vortex slowly crosses western Kansas.
As the rain tapers off there may be a brief period of status at
Garden City and Dodge City through 15z Monday. At this time will
insert a scattered deck of IFR status early this morning but will
continue to monitor trends and insert a couple hours of IFR
ceilings if needed. By late morning VFR conditions are anticipated
at all three taf sites. A northeast wind at around 10 knots will
gradually shift to the southeast at around 10 knots by 00z


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 91 69 92 70 / 20 20 20 20
gck 90 68 92 68 / 10 20 10 20
eha 92 68 92 67 / 10 20 10 30
lbl 93 69 91 69 / 10 20 10 20
hys 89 69 92 70 / 80 20 10 20
p28 94 72 93 72 / 80 30 20 20


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Russell
long term...Russell

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations