Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kddc 240557 
afdddc

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
1157 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

..updated for aviation discussion...

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 305 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Our area is in the middle of 2 competing airmasses this
afternoon. A cool airmass to the north is holding off the further
advancement of higher terrain dry downslope air that has made it
into Elkhart, Hugoton and Liberal by early this afternoon. The
hrrr and rap13km models showed a narrow area of convective
development anywhere from Dodge City eastward through
Stafford/Great Bend and northward, corresponding to a band of
moderate cape values ahead of the warm front and frontal forcing
zone. Given the environmental parameters, a brief marginally
severe hail storm couldn't be ruled out in this area during the
very late afternoon. Meanwhile, the wave responsible for
developing the large scale lift and winter storm across Nebraska
will continue lifting northeast, with some potential for rain and
snow showers to clip the northern sections of our area (namely the
I-70 corridor and the WaKeeney and Hays area). Little more than a
dusting to a half inch of snow looks possible form the most
optimistic model runs.

The area will remain under the influence of cold northerly surface
winds through the day Friday. Low level overcast clouds should
influence central Kansas through the day, however sun should be
returning from southwest to east through the day. Much of the area
won't exceed the mid 30s for afternoon highs.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 305 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Much colder temperatures returning by Saturday morning, as cold
surface high pressure settles over the area. The entire area could
be in the the teens, with low teens in the extreme western counties.
Models indicate a slow moderation in temperatures through the early
part of next week, with a couple of westerly waves along the way
bringing outside chances for precipitation, Sunday night and Tuesday.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1154 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

North to northwest winds at 15-20 kts will persist through the
period as surface low pressure exits and cold surface high
pressure begins to build in. Low MVFR ceilings will persist then
increasing to VFR by 14-17z as drier air arrives.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 130 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

It will be tough to see true red flag conditions across the extreme
northern sections of the warned area, like Scott County, northern
Finney and Lane. However farther south the conditions will easily be
met with stronger winds than forecast earlier and the latest hrrr
model runs taking the windy dry conditions across the entire
southern tier to Barber County. Lane and Scott counties dropped
from red flag.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 27 41 17 46 / 0 0 0 0
gck 26 38 16 46 / 0 0 0 0
eha 26 42 19 48 / 0 0 0 0
lbl 28 44 19 47 / 0 0 0 0
hys 29 34 18 44 / 40 20 0 0
p28 32 46 21 47 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations