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fxus63 kddc 292356 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
656 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

..updated aviation...

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Wrap around moisture with the current system will continue to
bring scattered showers to western Kansas this evening into the
overnight period. The rain will mostly be confined to east of
US-83 until 00z then slowly slide off eastward as the evening
progresses. The rain will be confined to central and south central
Kansas after midnight with precipitation moving out of the area by
sunrise tomorrow. Skies will be cloudy across the County Warning Area through
midnight with decreasing cloud cover from west to east. Clouds
look to be observed across central and south central Kansas by
late morning with mostly clear skies expected across all the
forecast area by sunset tomorrow. Winds through tomorrow morning
look to be from a northerly direction then shift to and easterly
direction as we head into tomorrow night. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from around freezing across west
central Kansas to low 40s across south central Kansas. Highs
tomorrow look to range from the low 50s across central Kansas to
mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

There will be a brief break in between systems Thursday night into
Friday morning, with increased cloudiness Friday afternoon. Mostly
cloudy skies are expected by Friday night with rain chances
increasing from west to east. This system initially has the same
kind of track the first one did, but then splits as it starts to
exit The Rockies. One upper level low will move over Kansas with
the other sliding well south into the Southern Plains.
Nevertheless, precipitation is expected to be possible this
weekend. This system then moves out the area Sunday with
decreasing cloudiness. Models then suggest another system moving
into the area by the mid part of next week. However, confidence in
timing and track is low. Temperatures throughout the long term
forecast look to fluctuate from the 50s Friday, mid 40s northwest
to upper 50s southeast Saturday, around 60 degrees Sunday, then in
the 60s for the first part of next week. Lows will generally be in
the 30s with the exception of central and south central Kansas
where low 40s will be possible.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 653 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

With the rain showers winding down overnight, kgck and khys will
be in MVFR conditions until ceilings start to gradually rise in
the morning, and kddc in IFR conditions until ~3z when it moves
into MVFR. NAM and GFS show an 850 mb wind speeds overnight at 35-40
knots, which will keep the northwest surface winds overnight at
15-25 knots. As the system moves east, clouds will clear out
causing kgck to come into VFR conditions after ~13z; kddc after
~15z and khys after ~20z. The northwest winds will die down to
5-10 knots at all sites tomorrow afternoon.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 37 57 35 58 / 70 10 0 0
gck 36 60 37 56 / 60 0 0 10
eha 35 65 38 60 / 50 0 0 20
lbl 36 63 37 60 / 50 0 0 10
hys 38 53 36 54 / 80 10 0 0
p28 41 55 36 61 / 60 20 0 0


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories...

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