Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
230 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016
..updated long term...
Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016
Atmosphere across SW Kansas has been strongly worked over by last
night's convection, and this is expected to limit redevlopment
through tonight. Airmass is capped with instability strongly
depleted as of noon, despite moist easterly upslope surface winds.
Mesoanalysis as of noon shows cape axis trying to rebuild
immediately South/West of the County Warning Area. Given this and the upslope
moist flow and the old boundary hanging out just south of SW Kansas
overnight, kept an isolated storm mention across the southern
zones. Confidence is low that any storms will be able to redevelop
at all, and certainly we will not see the widespread coverage
observed last night. With moist upslope surface flow, and
widespread rainfall last night, some areas of radiation fog seem
plausible late tonight through sunrise Tuesday morning. NAM MOS
guidance is most robust with this, other models not so much.
Included areas of fog in the grids across northern counties
tonight as a compromise.
Tuesday...traditional Summer weather continues. Highs in the lower
90s, high humidity, and a prevailing southeast wind near 10 mph. Most
locales will be dry for most of Tuesday. Forcing will be weak,
and with no obvious boundaries, purposely kept pop grids capped at
isolated/slight chance (<25%) through 7 PM Tuesday. 12z GFS does
forecast a weak shortwave to round the high pressure ridge axis to
our west, arriving near the Colorado/Kansas border late Tuesday night. This
may prove to be enough to direct more storms into western Kansas
Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016
Typical Summer weather will continue through this week, with no
day-to-day surprises. Temperatures will show little if any diurnal
variation, with afternoon highs in the lower 90s, and lows in the
60s, through Saturday. Dominant upper anticyclone at 500 mb will
be centered near central Nevada on Wednesday, and remain
stationary near central Nevada through Friday. This stagnant
synoptic pattern will ensure unseasonably hot temperatures will
not return, as heights/thickness remain limited. In addition,
northwest midlevel flow will become increasingly established during this
time frame, with 12z European model (ecmwf) increasing nwly 500 mb winds to 30-40
kts Thursday evening, and persisting through Friday evening. As
such, scattered/chance coverage of thunderstorms is warranted in
the grids, as northwest flow directs convection into Kansas each evening.
Mesoscale details will determine the final outcome, but one or two
mcss appear likely Thursday and/or Friday.
Saturday through Monday...high pressure aloft moves eastward,
ending up near SW Kansas by Monday. As a result, rain chances dwindle
through the weekend, with afternoon temperatures creeping upward
into the mid to upper 90s.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016
Lingering stratocumulus will diminish to scattered cumulus this
afternoon. VFR with surface winds maintaining an easterly
component this afternoon near 10 kts. Atmosphere has been strongly
stablized by last night's convection. As such, no thunderstorms
mentioned in the 18z tafs. Sky clear prevails overnight. NAM model
suggests some areas of fog are possible across SW Kansas after 09z.
With a clear sky and recent widespread rainfall, some radiation
fog seems reasonable. Will only include vcfg for now with not the
greatest confidence. After 15z Tue, southeast winds near 10 kts at all
Preliminary point temps/pops...
ddc 69 92 69 92 / 20 20 20 20
gck 67 91 68 91 / 10 20 20 20
eha 69 93 69 92 / 20 30 30 30
lbl 71 93 71 92 / 20 20 30 30
hys 66 91 69 91 / 10 10 20 20
p28 70 92 71 92 / 20 20 20 20