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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
339 am MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Short term...today through Monday.
Issued at 247 am MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Front is progged to move across the plains later this morning
associated with upper level shortwave moving across Montana. The
airmass will be drier and more stable this aftn behind the fropa.
The GFS/NAM along with convective allowing models have trended
toward at least isolated to scattered convection developing during
the aftn along the southern Laramie range. This occurs as winds
become easterly and convergence improves. Thus, raised pops into
the 20-30 percent range for areas along the Colorado border in
Albany/Laramie counties. Not expecting the storms to be svr,
however cannot rule out an isolated stronger storm with cape values
rising to around 500 j/kg. Temps will be 5-10 degrees cooler across
the plains.

Midlvl subtropical ridge will build northward into Colorado through
Monday. Temps will be even cooler on Sunday as southeasterly winds
develop to the east of the Laramie range. Convective chances look
rather limited Sunday with much of the plains capped. Warming
occurs by Monday as 700 mb temps rise to 18-20c and heights aloft
increase. Dryline will set up along the Wyoming-NE border with decent
instability across the Nebraska Panhandle (cape values of 1500-2000
j/kg). While warm temps aloft and convective inhibition will keep
tstm chances low, any storm that initiates along the dryline could
be strong to svr into the evening. Storm Prediction Center has much of the plains in a
marginal risk on Monday.



Long term...(monday night through Friday night)
issued at 247 am MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Medium to long range models continue to show the center of the
upper level high pressure...currently across the southern Great
Plains this weekend...retrograding westward into the Great Basin
region next week. Northwest flow aloft will develop across Wyoming
and Nebraska by Wednesday with temperatures lowering towards near
normal for this time of the year. Although the high will block
subtropical moisture from advecting northward into the forecast
area...upslope easterly flow will be common by the middle of next
week with model sounding showing a good supply of low to midlevel
moisture. In addition...several shortwave disturbances embedded in
the northwest flow will move southeast out of Canada and will
likely result in some cooler air aloft and added instability and
jet dynamics. Will need to monitor the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and even more-so on Thursday due
to increased instability and 0-6 bulk shear. Temperatures will
remain in the 80's to 90's during the day Tuesday and
Wednesday...and then likely trend lower by late in the week with
highs in the mid 70's to mid 80's expected by Friday as a pretty
strong cold front moves south across the plains.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through Saturday night)
issued at 300 am MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

A few showers and one or two thundershowers are still possible
through 10z this morning near kcdr and ksny.
Otherwise...conditions will improve around sunrise with VFR
conditions expected this morning. Most areas will be dry with
light winds today...however...can not rule out some afternoon and
evening thunderstorms at kcys and klar between 20z and 02z.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 247 am MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Minimal fire weather concerns through early next week. Minimum
humidity values will fall to 10 to 20 percent each afternoon through
Monday for areas to the west of the Laramie range. However, wind
gusts will stay mostly below 20 mph and thus no fire weather threat
is anticipated across zones where fuels are ready.

&&

Cys watches/warnings/advisories...
Wyoming...none.
NE...none.
&&

$$

Short term...zf
long term...tjt
aviation...tjt
fire weather...zf

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