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afdcys

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
542 PM MDT sun Jun 25 2017

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 419 PM MDT sun Jun 25 2017

Tonight...low clouds have been slow to erode over far southeast
Wyoming and the southern Nebraska Panhandle, limiting instability.
Will keep an eye on developing cumulus field over southern Albany
County and my need to insert some low pops through early this
evening over and near the southern Laramie range. Otherwise a dry
night with temperatures slightly warmer than last night due to
airmass modification.

Monday...ridging aloft along with a relatively stable low level will
preclude mention of showers or thunderstorms. Decent spike in
maximum temperatures based on projected 700 mb temperatures and
thicknesses.

Monday night...as the ridge aloft moves overhead, temperatures will
be even warmer than the previous night. Have compromised between the
NAM and GFS MOS minimums.

Tuesday...considerably warmer as a shortwave trough aloft move
overhead, sending a prefrontal trough and weak cold frontal passage
over our counties. Downslope warming will help boost high
temperatures along and east of Interstate 25. Isolated to widely
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday night...shower and thunderstorm chances decrease quickly in
the evening, in the wake of the cold front and some drying in the
low levels.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 419 PM MDT sun Jun 25 2017

Zonal flow aloft will dominate the pattern by midweek. It will be
a warm, dry, and breezy day on Wednesday with limited tstm
chances. Minimum afternoon humidity and winds will be around
critical levels, especially across southeast WY, however not
expecting any fire weather concerns as fuels are still green.
Temps will cool on Thursday/Friday behind a front. The models do
not show much instability through Friday as west-to-northwest flow
in boundary layer keeps higher dewpoints to the east of the County Warning Area.
There is some hint that better llvl moisture will work westward
toward the Laramie range by Saturday as winds become
southeasterly.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 540 PM MDT sun Jun 25 2017

No real concerns with this taf issuance. VFR conditions will
persist along with light wind speeds due to the influence of
surface high pressure over the northern plains.



&&

Fire weather...
issued at 419 PM MDT sun Jun 25 2017

Relatively low humidities Monday afternoon to the west of I-25,
and will have relatively light winds to deal with, lessening fire
weather concerns. Will need to keep a close eye on winds and
humidities for Wednesday in the wake of a Pacific origin cold
front.

&&

Cys watches/warnings/advisories...
Wyoming...none.
NE...none.
&&

$$

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