Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kcys 231831 
afdcys

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne Wyoming
1131 am MST Tue Jan 23 2018

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 330 am MST Tue Jan 23 2018

High pressure over The Rockies this morning. Very little in the
way of clouds being observed on infrared imagery. Mid clouds over
Nebraska Panhandle moving east and should be out of the County warning forecast area by
sunrise this morning. Water vapor imagery showing a weak shortwave
over Montana this morning. Seems to be weakening and barely
discernible.

For today, kept some snow showers in the snowy and Sierra Madre
ranges as all guidance showing this. But given how weak the
shortwave in Montana is looking, may need to pull those pops out
early. Outside the mountains, weather should be dry.

Winds on the increase this evening into Wednesday. GFS 700mb winds
up to 40kts by 03z and 50kts by 09z. High wind guidance showing
Craig to Casper 850/700mb height gradients increasing to 56/49mtrs
by 06z and 67/58mtrs by 09z tonight. Decided to issue high wind
watches for the Bordeaux and Arlington zones for tonight through
Wednesday afternoon with this forecast package.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 330 am MST Tue Jan 23 2018

Winds ease a little Wednesday afternoon with the GFS showing 40kts
at 700mb across southeast Wyoming. Looks like we stay windy though
through the remainder of the week with 700mb winds remaining
elevated and Craig/Casper gradients in the mid 40 to low 50 mtr
range. Could see our next high wind event Thursday as GFS 700mb
winds out by Arlington 50-55kts.

Weak shortwave passage Friday for some snow showers in the snowy
and Sierra Madre ranges. Everywhere else should stay dry

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday morning)
issued at 1131 am MST Tue Jan 23 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

&&

Fire weather...
issued at 330 am MST Tue Jan 23 2018

Gusty winds continue today through Wednesday with wind prone areas
seeing strong wind gusts near 60 mph. Elsewhere 30 to 40 mph wind
gusts will be common across southeast Wyoming. Given recent snow,
fire weather concerns minimal and will remain so as long as we
keep the snow pack.

&&

Cys watches/warnings/advisories...
Wyoming...high wind watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
for wyz106-110.

NE...none.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations