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fxus61 kctp 102340 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
640 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

high pressure will build south of the region overnight. Meanwhile
a new frontal system will approach for Sunday and Monday. It will
turn sharply colder behind a cold front on Tuesday, with a shot of
Arctic air and frigid temperatures expected through the end of the


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/...
adjusted weather and pop grids a little over the next few hours.

Briefing package sent out.

Earlier discussion below.

The long-duration lake effect event will continue to gradually
wind down as the steering winds back around more to the SW and
allow the snow bands to migrate north into New York. Any additional
accumulations are expected to remain light.

Outside of the lake effect area, expect little more than a stray
snow shower of flurry spilling southeast over the alleghenies
into the Central Ridge and valley region.

Skies may actually scatter out for a few hours later today over
and this evening over most of the forecast area, just in time for
the next system to approach for Sunday. Lows will drop back into
the mid teens to lower 20s.

Latest timing shows warm advection snows beginning over my western
zones before dawn on Sunday.


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through 6 PM Sunday/...
a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued...

Snow will overspread most of the region tomorrow morning. Precip
type Sunday will favor snow as the temps aloft will stay cold
enough during the day. Enough warm air may sneak into southwestern zones
to bring a wintry mix by late in the day, but the best chance of a
mix looks to hold off until Sunday night over southern zones. The
biggest question for southern PA tomorrow will be if they get
dry-slotted after the initial shot of warm advection scoots
through. This complicated the advisory decision a bit with the
main reasoning for headlines over southern areas being the
expected ice, which should hold off until late day or overnight.
But the quick burst of snow during the day will likely start
things off with deteriorating travel conditions so we decided to
keep the headlines simple.


Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/...
scattered snow showers Monday night across the western mtns of PA
will diminish as a weak ridge of high pressure at the sfc slides
east from the Ohio Valley. Tuesday will begin a cool down in temps
over a several day period as progressively cold chunks of Arctic
air move southeast ahead of the main, sub-500 dam polar vortex
that will be moving to near James Bay Canada by late Wednesday

The coldest airmass of this Young winter will spread into the region
for Thursday and Friday. Temps Thursday could conceivably struggle
to get above 10f for highs across the northwest mtns. The gefs shows a
small area of -2 to -3 sigma temps at 850 mb with values around
-18 f.

West-northwest wind gusting between 25 and 30 mph both Wednesday and
Thursday will create wind chills of 5-10 below zero during the
morning hours Thursday (mainly across the northwest mtns), and only in the
single digits during the daylight hours. Skies will become mainly
clear with the wind dying off Thursday night as a 1025 mb sfc high
build east from the nation's Heartland. This will set the stage
for frigid temperatures - but several degrees above record lows.

Min temps early Friday could dip to zero to 5 below across the
fresh snow covered ground of the Laurel Highlands and northwest mtns, and
will be in the single digits to teens.

Fair and dry (but very cold) weather is expected to persist Friday
night. However...a moisture-laden storm will likely impact a large
chunk of the region (beginning friday) with snow changing to mixed
precip of from the SW.

Saturday and Sunday, clouds will thicken up quickly and
precipitation will begin shortly afterward Saturday morning. It's
too early to give specifics on that storm W/resp that storm. 10/00z
ec and gefs do infer a widespread wintry (snow) precip
event...likely changing to some light sleet or fzra as the thicker
seeder/feeder cloud shield slides off to the east.


Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/...
cold west-northwest flow has begun to back to the SW...pretty much pushing
any significant snows north into New York. Any improvement will be short
lived, as conditions will deteriorate once again late tonight and
Sunday as a new frontal system brings widespread snow. Far southeastern
terminals will likely remain south of the precipitation and remain
VFR before conditions lower Sunday night.

The snow will mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain Sunday
night over the terminals south of about Interstate 80, before
tapering off as some light rain or snow showers Monday morning.


Mon...slowly improving conditions with precipitation tapering off
to rain or snow showers by Monday afternoon.

Tue-Wed...MVFR ceilings and light snow showers possible northwest. VFR

Thu...restrictions possible, mainly west and north with More Lake
effect snow showers. Gusty northwest wind.


Ctp watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 am Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday
for paz004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-



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