Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1040 am EDT Tuesday Aug 30 2016
High pressure will bring another period of warmer than normal and
mainly dry weather into Wednesday. A cold front will move across
the commonwealth late Wednesday and early Thursday, followed by a
refreshingly cooler airmass with low humidity Thursday through
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
Morning visual loops shows the patchy valley fog has dissipated as
expected under the still strong late August sunshine. Our surface
high will remain entrenched across the region through early
Wednesday...providing another Gem of a day for central PA. Expect
mostly sunny skies and highs ranging from the upper 70s north to
the upper 80s southeast.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Wednesday/...
backing flow aloft takes place tonight through Wednesday as upper
ridge over central Mississippi River valley retrogresses west-southwest to
the south Central Plains. This will induce stronger westerlies
across the central and eastern glaks and Ohio Valley by tonight...
causing increasing deep layer moisture to make a run at western PA
from the Ohio Valley tonight and Wednesday. At the same time...a
sagging 5h shear axis will approach from the northwest Wednesday
afternoon...touching off isolated to scattered showers and
Mins tonight will range from mid 50s north to the mid 60s
southeast...while highs Wednesday are near to ever so slightly
above Tuesday maxes.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
the extended period looks like it will feature a transition from
a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to
a weak upper-level trough by mid to late week. As a result,
above-normal temperatures through the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
will transition to near or a little below normal by the end of the
Medium range guidance agrees with a second-stronger cold front
pushing southeast across the area Wednesday afternoon/early Wed night,
with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms.
This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next
week and into Saturday. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s
Thursday into the weekend over the northern and western higher
terrain, with low to mid 80s elsewhere as an upper trough
amplifies from central Quebec...to the mid Atlantic Piedmont.
Aviation /15z Tuesday through Saturday/...
All terminals are VFR as of 10 am, and will continue into
Patchy fog may once again develop toward daybreak Wednesday.
Wed...sct PM ts impacts possible.
Thu-Sat...no sig wx expected.
near term...devoir/la corte