Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 201139
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
639 am EST Mon Nov 20 2017
high pressure is moving in. Snow showers will taper off and
lift northward this morning. Fair and mild weather is in store
for Tuesday. A mainly-dry cold front will move in Tuesday night,
and cool temps off to near seasonal levels for the rest of the
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
radar getting very quiet, and only very light snow left. All is
well with the forecast. Minimal changes to near term temps.
wind backing to the SW as the high pressure moves in from the
SW. The earlier band which Sat for so long over Clearfield and
centre counties is dead and gone. Not much in the way of radar
returns now as the subsidence inversion lowers. Sunshine should
increase this morning in the SW and the east should go to full
sunshine. Latest cams are very consistent in lifting any
remaining snow to the north of the County Warning Area before noon. Not enough
snow left to fall to justify keeping the advy. So we will drop
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Tuesday/...
clear skies and light wind in the east will allow temps to drop
into the 20s while the SW breeze keeps the higher elevs in the
SW in the lower 30s.
Tuesday looks very nice/fair/mild. We'll be under the thermal
ridge Tuesday and will get into the u40s to l50s. As the sun
sets, as small chance of a shower exists in the far northwest.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
a weakening front will slide by to our north and bring sct
shrasn to the northwest half of the area Tuesday night and very early
Another area of high pressure will build east and keep US mainly
dry at least through the end of the week, before a new frontal
system takes aim at the area.
Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...
snow showers have diminished markedly in the last few hours.
Only threat of accumulating snow will be over the northwest
mountains /kbfd/ for the next couple hours.
Broken MVFR cloud deck will prevail at kbfd and kjst with sct-bkn
VFR cigs at kaoo, kunv, kipt, kmdt and klns through the mid
afternoon hours Monday. Skies will gradually clear out from
south to north, with the sfc winds backing to the west southwest
and decreasing to 6-9 kts after 20z Monday
Mon...am shsn/reduced vsbys possible northwest mountains.
Tue-Wed...chance of rain/snow showers Tue night-am Wed.
Thu-Fri...no sig wx expected.