Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
144 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
dry weather can be expected today and Saturday as high pressure
builds across the area. Unseasonably warm conditions will return
by Saturday with highs in the 60s to mid 70s. A cold front will
bring a chance of showers to the northern mountains Saturday
night and to the rest of the area on Sunday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the sunshine will only help temps get so high with 800 mb temps sub-
zero to start the day. Mixing does get 800 mb temps to +2 or 4c. Thus
maxes will likely be in the m40s north/NE but could get in the M-u50s
in the far srn sections. Winds will probably still be breezy in
the morning and early aftn, but the sfc high builds into wrn PA by
the end of the afternoon and the wind should diminish late in the
day in the west.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
Friday night will be mainly clear with light winds under high
pressure. Mild weather will return on Saturday with 850 mb
temperatures forecast to rise back into the +10 to +13c range -
allowing surface temperatures to climb into the 60s with l70s in
the south. The next front approaching from the north may trigger a
few showers over the northern mountains late in the day. The front
will stall for a short time as it enters PA as a sfc wave forms
along the front back in the Midwest. The upper short wave trough
sliding straight east over the area will help to shove the front
slightly to the south Sat night. But the front won't pass through
most of the County Warning Area until late in the day Sunday.
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
models are in good agreement with a mild and reasonably quiet
weather pattern through the period. Showers are possible on Sunday
as a slow moving cold front sags south across the area. High
pressure will bring dry conditions with near seasonable
temperatures on Monday... highs will be mostly in the 50s with
some 60s in the southeast. High pressure over the southeast U.S.
Will bring dry mild weather Tuesday through Wednesday with
temperatures returning to above normal levels. European model (ecmwf)/GFS and gefs
are in good overall agreement with this pattern and confidence is
Aviation /18z Friday through Wednesday/...
dry weather can be expected into Saturday as high pressure builds
across the area. A west-northwest wind of 10-15kt with a few
higher gusts will dimish by this evening as the pressure gradient
Another shortwave with a weak cold front push toward the northern
mountains late Sat, poss bringing ceiling restrictions across
the New York border (better chance for cig restrictions Sat night).
Sat...cig restrictions poss late in northwest mtns, and more likely overnight.
Otherwise no sig wx expected.
Sun...showers/low cigs possible, esp north and west.
Mon-Wed...no sig wx expected.