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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service State College PA
748 am EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

dry weather can be expected today and Saturday as high pressure
builds across the area. Unseasonably warm conditions will return
by Saturday with highs in the 60s to mid 70s. A cold front will
bring a chance of showers to the northern mountains Saturday
night and to the rest of the area on Sunday.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
sky breaking up as expected in the central mtns first. Few if any
radar echoes left now. I Love it when a plan...

the nrn border and The Laurels will be the last to get rid of the
low clouds and any light precip. The sunshine will only help temps
get so high with 800 mb temps sub-zero to start the day. Mixing does
get 800 mb temps to +2 or 4c. Thus maxes will likely be in the m40s
north/NE but could get in the M-u50s in the far srn sections. Winds
will probably still be breezy in the morning and early aftn, but
the sfc high builds into wrn PA by the end of the afternoon and
the wind should diminish late in the day in the west.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
Friday night will be mainly clear with light winds under high
pressure. Mild weather will return on Saturday with 850 mb
temperatures forecast to rise back into the +10 to +13c range -
allowing surface temperatures to climb into the 60s with l70s in
the south. The next front approaching from the north may trigger a
few showers over the northern mountains late in the day. The front
will stall for a short time as it enters PA as a sfc wave forms
along the front back in the Midwest. The upper short wave trough
sliding straight east over the area will help to shove the front
slightly to the south Sat night. But the front won't pass through
most of the County Warning Area until late in the day Sunday.


Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
models are in good agreement with a mild and reasonably quiet
weather pattern through the period. Showers are possible on Sunday
as a slow moving cold front sags south across the area. High
pressure will bring dry conditions with near seasonable
temperatures on Monday... highs will be mostly in the 50s with
some 60s in the southeast. High pressure over the southeast U.S.
Will bring dry mild weather Tuesday through Wednesday with
temperatures returning to above normal levels. European model (ecmwf)/GFS and gefs
are in good overall agreement with this pattern and confidence is
above normal.


Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
dry weather can be expected today and Saturday as high pressure
builds across the area.

Sprinkles coming to an end over central PA at daybreak as upper
low slides off to the east. VFR ceilings east of the mountains in
downslope flow. Lingering MVFR conditions over western and
northern terrain (with IFR in upslope flow over the Laurel
highlands) will gradually retreat through mid/late morning -
lingering the longest at kjst - before VFR conditions become the
rule areawide. A west-northwest wind of 10-15kt with a few higher
gusts will continue through at least the first half of the day
before gradient weakens and winds relax.

Another shortwave with a weak cold front push toward the northern
mountains late Sat, poss bringing ceiling restrictions across
the New York border (better chance for cig restrictions Sat night).


Sat...cig restrictions poss late in northwest mtns, and more likely overnight.
Otherwise no sig wx expected.

Sun...showers/low cigs possible, esp north and west. sig wx expected.


Ctp watches/warnings/advisories...


near term...dangelo
short term...dangelo
long term...Martin

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