Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 231244
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
744 am EST Thu Nov 23 2017
high pressure will build into the area bringing dry weather and
temperatures very close to average for Thanksgiving today. The
high pressure ridge will slowly drift over and east of the area
on Friday and early Saturday ahead of a frontal system which
will bring a chance of precipitation to the area this weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
quiet Thanksgiving day weather for the area, with high pressure
east of here. Will still have some lower stratus across
northern half of area this morning before mid and high clouds
move into the area by the afternoon. Temperatures will top out
very close to average.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Friday/...
high pressure over the area tonight with quiet weather. Temperatures
close to or a couple degrees above average.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
weak ridging aloft in advance of next system Friday and Friday
night. Expect a somewhat milder day Friday, as surface high
passes off the coast and return southwest flow ensues.
Cold front approaches region on Saturday. Scattered rain
showers will likely accompany the front on Sat, followed by a
period of lake effect snow showers Sat night into Sunday, as
another blast of seasonably chilly air charges across the
relatively mild waters of the grt lks. Ecens and gefs both
support below normal temperatures Sunday, as deep upper level
trough swings over the northeast states.
As has been the case all fall, the colder weather will be short
lived with dry weather and mild temperatures returning for at
least the first half of the upcoming work week.
Aviation /13z Thursday through Monday/...
bkn-ovc layer of MVFR to low-end VFR strato cu clouds will
persist across the central and northern mountains of
Pennsylvania through the mid morning hours today. Afterward, the
low-mid level ridge of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will
flatten out and drift over the state this afternoon and evening.
The strato cu area will erode from the outside inward late this
morning as the mean low level flow backs around to 240-260
degrees causing the tap of upstream moisture off the Great Lakes
to vanish. Afterward, an area of bkn Alto cu (based at 080-120
kft agl) and cirrus will slide east from the Ohio Valley and
across central PA and the susq valley this afternoon and evening
as milder air aloft streams east out of the Midwest states.
The west-northwest (early) to west-southwest winds this (afternoon and tonight) will
be generally less than 10 kts.
VFR conditions will prevail into Friday.
The overall pattern favors no big weather systems through the
upcoming weekend and into early next week, but frontal passages
with limited moisture are expected every few days.
Best wishes for a nice and relaxing Thanksgiving.
Fri...no sig wx expected.
Sat...chance of rain/snow showers.
Sun...chance of snow showers across the northwest in the morning.
Otherwise no sig wx expected.
Mon...no sig wx.