Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 290613
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
213 am EDT Thu Jun 29 2017
high pressure off the eastern Seaboard will set up a warmer and
more humid airflow over the next several days. A cold front on
Saturday will bring a brief break in the humidity.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
variable mid to high clouds will continue to stream overhead
overnight...but with little impact on sensible weather across
central PA. With surface high pressure drifting east of the
area...it will be another comfortable sleeping night with
dewpoints still only in the 50s...and lows ranging from the
lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Friday/...
by Thursday the eastern US will be under a broad upper ridge,
but close to the southern edge of the main westerlies. A warmer
and more humid airmass will begin to advect into the region
between the offshore high and a low moving north of the gr
lakes. Deterministic models develop a fair amount of cape and
mid level lapse rates are forecast in the 6-7c/km range, so an
afternoon shower or thunderstorm is likely in a few spots. Storm Prediction Center
day 2 convective outlook has northwestern third of County Warning Area in a
marginal risk for severe and remainder of County Warning Area in general
thunder. Coverage looks to be isolated to scattered at best and
will likely be in the mid afternoon into the evening hours.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
not a lot of change from yesterday.
Main thing was to edge probability of precipitation down a little on Friday.
Cold front moves toward the area on Friday, but holds
off to later Saturday. Thus highest chc of showers and
storms will be on Saturday.
Left Sunday night into Monday night dry. However, the cold
front will not be very far to the south.
Some hints of a chance of showers and storms next Tuesday
into Wed. Perhaps Thursday, but left Thursday mainly dry,
given other recent guidance.
Was thinking yesterday that we see more typical temperature
and dewpoints for early Summer later this week into next
week. Still seeing that, but now a a cool down toward the end
of next week.
Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
expect predominately VFR flying through the 29/06z taf period.
Light winds and increasing mid-high clouds should preclude fog
formation early this morning. Light rain showers will drift
across Lake Erie into western New York on the edge of the northwest airspace.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity is possible
Thursday afternoon/evening mainly across the northwest 1/2 of
the airspace. Surface wind gusts 15-20kts from 170-240 degrees
from mid/late morning through the afternoon before diminishing
Fri...isold/sct PM tstm impacts psbl; most likely northwest 1/3.
Sat...tstms likely with MVFR/IFR restrictions.
Sun-Mon...no sig wx expected.