Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kctp 230401
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1201 am EDT sun Jul 23 2017
a frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of Pennsylvania
through Monday. This will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region for the next day. High pressure
will build southeast into the region for the middle of next week
bringing slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity
Near term /until 7 am Sunday morning/...
three distinct cluster of showers running through the area
right now. Storms over The Laurels contain heavy rain, but it
has hardly rained there today, so flooding worries low there for
the evening and early tonight. Rain and spinning showers moving
out of the eastern counties are very low-topped and produced
little if any thunder as they passed through, but did make a >2"
rain stripe from Penfield to Lock Haven. One spotter in Lock
Haven had almost 2.5". Much of the area is just soaking in this
largely beneficial rain. Tweaks made to pops for the next few
hours based on recent radar and cams trends.
complicated forecast for next day. Mesoscale convective system moving across County Warning Area
currently has lost a lot of its intensity over our area. Still
a couple areas of heavy rain though. One area across Mifflin
County moving fast enough NE and is rather benign. Gages in
Mifflin showing around a half to three quarters of an inch.
Another east-west band is entering western Clearfield County.
Cams have been showing some heavier rainfall totals as this is
forecast to pivot NE and eventually slow down. Elsewhere radar
returns show only light showers. With high precipitable water air and frontal
boundary over the area, models show more development this
afternoon and evening across the southern 2/3 of the County Warning Area. Low
level jet will also increase overnight. Will keep pops high to
cover this. Still can't rule out a few stronger storms across
the south. Storms will also have brief heavy downpours with a
quick 1-2 inches of rain possible. So isolated flooding is
possible as well.
Short term /7 am Sunday morning through Sunday night/...
more convection is likely on Sunday with frontal boundary moving
little overnight. Moderate convective available potential energy and moderate westerly flow
aloft, combined with large scale forcing ahead of approaching
upper trough, should support widespread convection by afternoon.
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
looking at some dry weather for a change from later Monday
into Wed, as weak high pressure builds into the area.
Less humid and slightly cooler weather for mid week.
Some showers and storms on Thursday into early Friday, as
another cold front moves across the area.
Back to dry conditions by later Friday into the weekend.
Cut back on showers and storms for Wednesday night and later
Aviation /04z Sunday through Thursday/...
Storms have moved through and exited the region. Rain continues
through the northwest at bfd. The clearing skies will give way to low
IFR across the region so expect IFR cigs to develop over the
next few hours between 04z to 06z. At bfd there is the potential
that cigs drop to IFR and lower and then drop to the valley
between 08z to 10z. Otherwise IFR restrictions across the region
will continue until shortly after sunrise.
Another round of severe weather will move through the region
Sun night...cig restrictions likely. Scattered tsra/shra.
Mon...am restrictions likely. Scattered thunderstorms and rain.
Tue-Wed...patchy am fog. Otherwise no sig wx.
Thu...chance of showers and storms.