Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service State College PA
255 PM EDT sun Jul 24 2016


High pressure will move over and east of the region today, paving
the way for a frontal system that will approach overnight and
Monday. High pressure will return for mid week. It will remain
warm throughout the period.


Near term /through tonight/...

Clouds have thinned over the region leading to another hazy-very
warm to hot day with humidity starting to creep up from the west.

A small mesoscale convective system is moving east from Ohio and the latest hrrr keeps it
going into my western zones by late afternoon. The airmass is
still stable over most of the County Warning Area with the best cape over the far
swrn zones. I nudged pops up a bit but am still questioning the
hrrr given its recent history with convection trying to invade our
parched local area. I painted the highest pops over my western
areas, tapering off to the east in anticipation of the convection
drying up as it moves east.

The overnight will become muggy with the threat for additional
showers and thunderstorms, but the various models are in wide
disagreement on where and when the highest threat will be. I kept
the small mention of rain for the first half of the overnight with
a slightly elevated chance after midnight in anticipation of the
potential for upstream convection to track east.


Short term /Monday/...

Monday looks hazy hot and humid with dewpoints well up in the 60s
and possibly even lower 70s over the southeast where the
combination of heat and humidity warrants a heat advisory for the
warmest hours of the afternoon.

A weak cold front will provide enhanced convergence in an
increasingly unstable airmass leading to the threat for some
strong storms, especially in the afternoon when the sref and gefs
pump CAPES up to between 1500-2000j with a not unimpressive low level jet
sliding into the forecast area.

Any rain Monday will be very welcome, but probably not enough to
put a Dent in the widespread dry conditions we have been
experiencing for the last several weeks.


Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
big story in the extended fcst is the expected heat wave lasting
into early in the upcoming week, as the axis of the subtropical
ridge briefly shifts from the plains to the northeast conus.
Anomalous upper lvl ridging building over PA should bring hot and
mainly dry wx this weekend, as warm temps aloft suppress

Some modest cooling appears likely by Tue/Wed of next week behind
weak cold front. However, temps still likely to remain somewhat
abv normal within a generally zonal flow.

Midweek weather looks dry again, with just low pops for isolated
tstms. Fri looks to be the next higher chance for tstm impacts
areawide as another cool front progged to move through.


Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...

Widespread VFR will continue into the overnight. Increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening into the
overnight will bring the chance for localized restrictions
developing at terminals that become affected by the precipitation.

A cold front/weak boundary will across the Great Lakes tonight
and through PA on Monday. This will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms into Monday evening, and perhaps into very early
tues morning. Some of the storms Monday afternoon and evening
could be locally severe.

High pressure returns for mid-week.

Outlook... fog poss. Otherwise VFR.

Thu-Fri...mainly VFR. Scattered PM shra/tsra.


record high in both ipt and MDT for today is 96f.
Current high temp forecast for both locations is 94f.
Considering the maxes of the past few days, the very dry soil and
likely lack of thick high clouds today we could easily tie or
nudge those records later this afternoon.


Ctp watches/warnings/advisories...


$$ corte
near corte
short corte
long term...Lambert/gartner corte

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations