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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
414 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016

Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...

A mid/upper level low/inverted trough across the northern Gulf of
Mexico will gradually track westward and over south Texas through
the period. A large plume of tropical moisture across the Gulf
will push further west as well. Scattered convection has already
been firing across the East Texas, the northern Texas coast, and
Gulf waters this afternoon. Disturbance will move down the
inverted trough with chances for pops highest across eastern
zones this afternoon and evening. Increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms on Tuesday as inverted trough axis sets up
across the region. Highest moisture will remain across the
Victoria Crossroads and northern coastal Bend, and have maintained
high end chance to likely pops across these areas, as well as the
eastern marine zones on Tuesday. Severe weather is not anticipated
at this time, but an isolated strong storm along with localizedheavy
rainfall will be possible. Trough axis and higher moisture remain
in place across the region Tuesday night with slight chance to
chance pops continuing. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly
cooler than past several days due to increased rain/cloud cover
and moisture.




&&

Long term (wednesday through monday)...

Expect the upper trough to provide upper forcing over the msa
Wednesday (deterministic nwp models) followed by a persistent
weakness in the 500 mb heights over the region Thursday/Friday (gfs
ensemble mean) until the upper ridge becomes established over the
County Warning Area/msa Saturday/Sunday (gfs ensemble mean.) The NAM deterministic
continues to predict copious moisture over the County Warning Area/msa Wednesday.
The combination of upper forcing and copious moisture will
contribute to at least scattered convection Wednesday. Very
efficient rainfall production is anticipated Wednesday (nam
deterministic soundings.) If a surface low develops Wednesday over
the County Warning Area (gfs ensemble mean)...a heavy rainfall event may occur.
Anticipate that significant moisture will remain over the region
Thursday/Friday followed by a decrease in precipitable water values Saturday-
Monday as the upper ridge builds over the region again. Will
maintain forecast of diurnal isolated convection mainly over the
County Warning Area...and nocturnal activity over the msa Thursday-Monday.
Anticipate that maximum heat index values will remain 105f or
less.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 79 93 79 93 79 / 20 40 20 30 20
Victoria 76 93 75 92 77 / 30 60 30 50 20
Laredo 79 99 78 102 78 / 20 30 20 20 20
Alice 76 96 77 96 77 / 20 40 20 20 20
Rockport 80 91 80 89 80 / 30 50 30 40 20
Cotulla 78 99 78 98 77 / 20 40 20 30 20
Kingsville 77 95 78 95 78 / 20 40 20 20 20
Navy corpus 80 90 81 88 81 / 20 40 30 30 20

&&

Crp watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Lk/84...short term
wc/87...long term

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