Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KCRP 181100 AAA AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 600 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs. && .AVIATION...Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected for the region through this afternoon. The temperature-dewpoint depressions were 1-2 degrees in some spots across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend early this morning. Could see some ground fog/patchy fog develop around daybreak that could provide MVFR vsbys. High clouds will be on the increase from the afternoon into the evening hours as a weak upper level disturbance moves into northern Mexico. An increase in moisture will move into the coastal areas late tonight. Isolated showers will be possible along the coast after 08Z along with MVFR ceilings. Winds will be lighter over the inland areas where MVFR vsbys are expected from 08-12Z Thursday. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 420 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)... The very dry air mass will remain over the region today with high temperatures near normal. There will be a transition to higher moisture late tonight into Thursday. A weak trough axis will move into the coastal waters overnight. Models are in agreement that an axis of high moisture from the northwest Gulf will move toward the coast late tonight. Low level lapse rates are forecast to be steep with lapse rates of around 7 degrees C/km in the 1000-850 layer. Expect scattered showers will form over the Gulf waters overnight and be near the coast before daybreak. This deeper moisture, with models showing precipitable water values back above 1.5 inches, will move into the coastal plains on Thursday. As this occurs, a weak short wave trough will move through the Big Bend of Texas and northern Mexico tonight and move into the Brush Country Thursday. Expect scattered convection will occur over the coastal waters into the coastal plains with isolated convection over the eastern part of the Brush Country for Thursday. TIDES (Today)... Tide levels continue to be above normal along the Middle Texas coast. Tides are running slightly above a foot from Port Aransas to Bob Hall Pier. The next astronomical high tide is an elevated one this afternoon. Combined with these elevated tides, water should reach 2 feet MSL for Gulf facing beaches south of Port Aransas. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 18Z today until 00Z Thursday. LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)... Moisture will continue to increase across the region over the end of the week into the weekend. The deeper longwave trough will dig into the northwestern states Thursday night and move east and further south through the end of the week. Several shortwaves will round the approaching trough and move across the region as this main upper level trough digs into the central states, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the weekend. The main trough will dig into South Texas bringing an associated cold front through the region on Sunday. Drier and cooler air will move into the region, dropping rain chances Monday through the end of the period. With regard to temperatures, a steady warming trend will continue through the end of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s returning by Saturday. This upcoming cold front is not showing to be as strong as the previous one, but will still experience a fair drop in temperatures Sunday into early next week, with lows dropping from the upper 60s/lower 70s back into the upper 50s/lower 60s. Highs early next week will stay in the low to mid 80s, but with lower RH values again, will feel more pleasant and seasonable. Long moderate to strong easterly fetch across the Gulf will possibly lead to additional minor coastal flooding into the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 85 67 85 71 85 / 10 20 40 20 30 Victoria 85 64 85 67 85 / 0 10 40 30 40 Laredo 88 63 87 69 88 / 0 0 10 10 10 Alice 88 63 88 68 88 / 0 10 30 20 20 Rockport 83 69 84 73 86 / 10 20 40 30 40 Cotulla 86 60 85 67 87 / 0 0 10 20 10 Kingsville 87 63 88 69 88 / 0 20 30 20 30 Navy Corpus 81 71 84 75 87 / 10 30 40 30 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening For the following zones: Kleberg...Nueces. GM...None.