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000 
FXUS64 KCRP 181100 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
600 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected for the 
region through this afternoon. The temperature-dewpoint
depressions were 1-2 degrees in some spots across the Victoria 
Crossroads and Coastal Bend early this morning. Could see some 
ground fog/patchy fog develop around daybreak that could provide 
MVFR vsbys. High clouds will be on the increase from the afternoon
into the evening hours as a weak upper level disturbance moves 
into northern Mexico. An increase in moisture will move into the 
coastal areas late tonight. Isolated showers will be possible 
along the coast after 08Z along with MVFR ceilings. Winds will be 
lighter over the inland areas where MVFR vsbys are expected from 
08-12Z Thursday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 420 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

The very dry air mass will remain over the region today with high
temperatures near normal. There will be a transition to higher
moisture late tonight into Thursday. A weak trough axis will move
into the coastal waters overnight. Models are in agreement that an
axis of high moisture from the northwest Gulf will move toward the
coast late tonight. Low level lapse rates are forecast to be steep
with lapse rates of around 7 degrees C/km in the 1000-850 layer. 
Expect scattered showers will form over the Gulf waters overnight
and be near the coast before daybreak. This deeper moisture, with
models showing precipitable water values back above 1.5 inches, 
will move into the coastal plains on Thursday. As this occurs, a 
weak short wave trough will move through the Big Bend of Texas and
northern Mexico tonight and move into the Brush Country Thursday.
Expect scattered convection will occur over the coastal waters 
into the coastal plains with isolated convection over the eastern 
part of the Brush Country for Thursday.

TIDES (Today)...

Tide levels continue to be above normal along the Middle Texas
coast. Tides are running slightly above a foot from Port Aransas
to Bob Hall Pier. The next astronomical high tide is an elevated
one this afternoon. Combined with these elevated tides, water 
should reach 2 feet MSL for Gulf facing beaches south of Port
Aransas. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 18Z today
until 00Z Thursday.

LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...

Moisture will continue to increase across the region over the end of 
the week into the weekend.  The deeper longwave trough will dig into 
the northwestern states Thursday night and move east and further 
south through the end of the week.  Several shortwaves will round 
the approaching trough and move across the region as this main upper 
level trough digs into the central states, with isolated to 
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the weekend. 
The main trough will dig into South Texas bringing an associated 
cold front through the region on Sunday.  Drier and cooler air will 
move into the region, dropping rain chances Monday through the end 
of the period.  

With regard to temperatures, a steady warming trend will continue 
through the end of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 
90s returning by Saturday. This upcoming cold front is not showing 
to be as strong as the previous one, but will still experience a 
fair drop in temperatures Sunday into early next week, with lows 
dropping from the upper 60s/lower 70s back into the upper 50s/lower 
60s.  Highs early next week will stay in the low to mid 80s, but 
with lower RH values again, will feel more pleasant and seasonable.

Long moderate to strong easterly fetch across the Gulf will possibly 
lead to additional minor coastal flooding into the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  67  85  71  85  /  10  20  40  20  30 
Victoria          85  64  85  67  85  /   0  10  40  30  40 
Laredo            88  63  87  69  88  /   0   0  10  10  10 
Alice             88  63  88  68  88  /   0  10  30  20  20 
Rockport          83  69  84  73  86  /  10  20  40  30  40 
Cotulla           86  60  85  67  87  /   0   0  10  20  10 
Kingsville        87  63  88  69  88  /   0  20  30  20  30 
Navy Corpus       81  71  84  75  87  /  10  30  40  30  40 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this 
     evening For the following zones: Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...None.

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