Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 151623
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
1023 am CST Fri Dec 15 2017
Dry air is starting to work it's way southward through the
forecast area as surface high pressure ridge settles in. Have
decreased pops a bit for this afternoon and evening, but will
leave at least a mention of sprinkles through mid-afternoon. At
this time the bulk of the precipitation is offshore, though there
are a few pockets of a light to moderate rain.
Otherwise forecast remains generally on track with highs staying
in the 50s to around 60 today.
Previous discussion... /issued 601 am CST Fri Dec 15 2017/
See aviation below for 12z taf update.
Light rain and showers will continue moving across over area
terminals this morning, diminishing in coverage through the
afternoon. A brief lowering of cigs to MVFR levels may occur this
morning, but VFR will generally prevail through the period.
Moderate winds will be from the north this morning, becoming light
during the evening and overnight.
Previous discussion... /issued 438 am CST Fri Dec 15 2017/
Short term (today through saturday)...
Cold and rainy conditions are the focus to the end of the week
forecast. Mid to upper level moisture continues to stream across
northern Mexico and over south Texas and the middle Texas coastal
waters this morning, with a deep upper level low positioned over
the Baja Peninsula. These conditions along with a favorably
located jet streak are helping to produce numerous to widespread
showers across much of the region early this morning. A strong
cold front moved offshore late last night/early this morning. As
drier air filters towards the coast today, rain chances will
taper down from north to south this afternoon and evening. In wake
of the cold front today, temperatures will remain much cooler,
with highs staying in the 50s. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies
will persist through the end of the week. Saturday, the upper
level low will move further east, closer to the region, while an
inverted trough develops. Deeper moisture will return, and
anticipate more widespread showers to overrun most of the area. An
isolated thunderstorm may be able to develop in the afternoon as
well as the upper disturbance lifts northeast. As Grey and rainy
conditions continue through the day on Saturday, temperatures will
not warm much, with highs staying in the 50s once again.
Strong north winds and elevated seas are developing in wake of a
strong cold front this morning, and a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect through today. An occasional, short-lived gust to gale
force will be possible across the open waters early this morning.
Winds will gradually diminish across the bays by the late
morning/early afternoon, with winds and seas dropping across the
coastal waters through the afternoon.
Long term (saturday night through thursday)...
Looks to be fairly active with perhaps a day here and there where
no rainfall is expected mainly in the middle of the week near the
end of this package (so much for la nina). Looks like the rain
chances for Saturday night will mainly be in the evening before the
trough moves across and the drier air begins to come in. Will have
likely and categorical pops Saturday evening east with just low end
pops farther west, then diminish rain chances a bit overnight
(especially west). Except for a few showers near the coast and over
the Gulf waters on Sunday, looks like Sunday will be dry. Moisture
returns Sunday night with the next upper disturbance, and there is
enough instability at least offshore for the mention of thunder (did
also include it in the near coastal areas).
Another rather weak front on Tuesday, then the models diverge a bit
with the GFS and Canadian bringing the shortwave trough across on
Tuesday but the European model (ecmwf) keeping the trough to the west at least 12
hours slower. Will keep in a slight mention of rain for Tuesday
night (lean more toward the GFS/Canadian though). Will go with a dry
forecast on Wednesday with zonal flow then another trough moves
toward the area on Thursday. At this time it looks as if there will
be enough dynamics by Thursday night to mention a chance for rain.
Thus, pattern remains somewhat active with mild days and nights but
no real cold air over the next several days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 54 45 59 49 66 / 80 20 70 70 10
Victoria 57 42 58 47 68 / 60 10 80 90 10
Laredo 55 44 51 44 65 / 70 20 80 20 10
Alice 54 44 56 45 68 / 80 20 80 60 10
Rockport 57 45 60 50 65 / 80 10 70 80 10
Cotulla 58 43 52 42 66 / 40 10 80 30 10
Kingsville 54 44 56 46 68 / 80 20 70 60 10
Navy corpus 57 48 61 54 67 / 80 20 60 70 10
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
Aransas out 20 nm...coastal waters from Port Aransas to
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 nm...waters from Baffin Bay
to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Port Aransas
to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: bays and waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
bays and waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor.