Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 090358 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
958 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016
Overall, the forecast and associated headlines are in good shape
this evening. Light rain or drizzle will continue to progress
eastward during the night. Only a trace to a hundredth or two of
rain is expected. Otherwise, cloud cover will remain across south
Texas during the night, which should keep temps from completely
bottoming out. Lows should still be able to fall into the middle
to upper 30s with lower 40s along the immediate coast. Northerly
winds will combine with the cold temps, resulting in wind chill
values between 25 and 35 degrees. Lastly, the Gale Warning will
continue over the Gulf waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
over the bays.
No major changes were needed to the forecast. Grids were updated
to account for latest observational trends. Updated products all
Previous discussion... /issued 553 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/
Updated for 00z aviation.
Light rain or drizzle will continue this evening at the ali/crp/vct
terminals. Low clouds will also persist through 06z except at lrd
where VFR conditions have all ready returned. Gusty winds early in
the period will diminish tonight into Friday morning with winds
less than 10 knots by the afternoon hours. Expect VFR conditions
on Friday with broken to overcast skies around 4000 to 5000 feet.
Previous discussion... /issued 351 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/
Short term (tonight through Friday night)...
Cold front well offshore at this time with solid gale force winds
through marine areas. Surface high pressure will gradually build
toward Texas tonight and tomorrow and will allow winds to
gradually subside. Wind Advisory looks on track to expire at 6 PM
with wind gusts decreasing to closer to 30 to 35 mph along the
coast. Marine zones will keep headlines through the night and much
of Friday for open waters as winds and seas will be slower to
Beyond the winds, the next main feature of the forecast is low
temperatures tonight. Haven't changed thinking much from previous
forecast packages. Despite extensive cloud cover across the region
should still see temps drop into the 30s overnight. If some holes
were to develop in clouds, could get a surprise quick drop in
temps...however winds remaining elevated will also keep
temperatures from dropping too far. Expect temperatures to remain
above freezing...however can't rule out a few cold prone/low areas
briefly touching 32 degrees. Will keep some light rain/drizzle in
the forecast for tonight until overruning flow subsides late
Forecast quiets down tomorrow and tomorrow night with high
pressure building. Will still keep considerable clouds with very
moist low levels, but could start to see some breaks tomorrow
afternoon and night. Temperatures remain very cold on Friday with
highs likely remaining in the 40s across the board. Expect lows
tomorrow night mainly in the 40s with some upper 30s possible.
Long term (saturday through thursday)...
Concur with the GFS/ecwmf deterministic that the upper pattern will
be characterized as quasi-zonal Saturday-Monday. A coastal
trough/isentropic lift is expected to contribute to at least
isolated showers/patchy light rain Saturday/Sunday over the eastern
cwa/msa. The GFS ensemble mean suggests that another modifying polar
airmass will advect southward across the northern plains late Monday...
across the Southern Plains late Tuesday...then across the County Warning Area/msa
Wednesday. Confident that the corresponding cold front will enter
the County Warning Area/msa Wednesday despite the only slightly more meridional
upper pattern given the expectation that the airmass will move
southward consistent with a density current. Owing to moisture
limitations...anticipate that convection will occur mainly over the
msa along the Wednesday front.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 39 49 43 62 58 / 20 10 10 20 20
Victoria 34 49 39 59 56 / 20 10 10 10 30
Laredo 35 48 40 54 51 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 36 48 40 58 54 / 20 10 10 10 20
Rockport 39 50 45 64 60 / 20 10 10 20 30
Cotulla 35 49 39 52 48 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 37 48 40 60 55 / 20 10 10 20 20
Navy corpus 41 51 48 64 62 / 20 10 10 20 20
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 am to noon CST Friday for the
following zones: waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
from 20 to 60 nm...waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 nm.
Gale Warning until 6 am CST Friday for the following zones:
waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 nm...
waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20
to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Friday for the following
zones: bays and waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
bays and waterways from Port Aransas to port o\connor.
Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for the following
zones: coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
20 nm...coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 nm.
Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for the following zones:
coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 nm...
coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 nm.