Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 280535
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
1235 am CDT Wed Jun 28 2017
Note aviation discussion below corresponding to the 06z tafs.
A transition to predominate MVFR ceilings expected overnight.
Patchy MVFR visibilities anticipated over interior portions,
mainly northeast of U.S. Highway 181, during the approximately
09-12z Wednesday period. Isolated showers will continue over the
coastal Bend overnight/early Wednesday morning. Predominate VFR
ceilings expected by mid/late morning Wednesday. Isolated/scattered
showers and thunderstorms, with brief MVFR conditions, are
expected late Wednesday morning/afternoon. Expect convection to
dissipate during the evening/early tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 718 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/
See aviation below for 00z taf update.
VFR prevails with showers waning in coverage across the region.
Anticipate lowering cigs to develop, bringing MVFR during the
morning hours before a return to VFR by the late morning/early
afternoon. More scattered showers will develop across the region
Wednesday morning, remaining within the vicinity of ali/crp/vct
through the afternoon. Winds will be light through the period,
shifting between a northeast to easterly flow.
Previous discussion... /issued 343 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/
Short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue across
south Texas. A coastal trough along the southern Texas coast remains
with noticeable counter-clockwise rotation over the area. Things
have stabilized along the coast but isolated convection will remain
possible. Moderate to heavy downpours is expected with the
showers/storms as pwats remain just over 2 inches. Slower movement
and training showers earlier this morning easily led to localized
flooding however this afternoon, movement appears to be much faster
with little training. Once again, activity is expected to wane
through the evening hours with the loss of heating. Showers and
thunderstorms are again expected to redevelop or continue across the
Gulf waters overnight from the combination of deep tropical
moisture, a lingering surface coastal trough, and a broad mid level
low aloft also draped along the Texas coast. The drying is expected
to move in from the north-northwest from the mid level trough, with
the bulk of the moisture focused across the Gulf waters and coastal
plains. Continued to keep highest pops across the far eastern areas
tonight through Wednesday night. As the moisture is shunted farther
east, did have a warming trend across the inland plains and brush
Long term (thursday through tuesday)...
The shear axis responsible for the showers and storms the last
few days will remain along the coast on Thursday. Coupled with precipitable water
values between 1.8 and 2.0 inches, chances for showers and storms
will continue on Thursday. Highest chances will be over the Gulf
waters tapering off to 20 percent over the brush country. Brief
heavy rains will be main hazards from these storms. The shear axis
weakens on Friday but a few showers and storms will still be
possible. Rain chances will end by Saturday as upper ridge builds
over the area. Dry conditions will then persist into early next
week. Temperatures through the extended will gradually warm with
highs in the low 100s over the brush country and Rio Grande to mid
90s over the Victoria Crossroads by early next week. Heat index
values will also be between 105 and 109 each day and will likely
need spss to address the heat.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 91 76 93 79 94 / 40 20 30 20 20
Victoria 90 75 94 78 94 / 40 20 30 20 30
Laredo 96 76 101 79 102 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 94 74 97 76 97 / 30 20 20 10 20
Rockport 89 79 92 82 94 / 40 30 30 20 30
Cotulla 95 75 101 77 101 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 93 75 96 78 96 / 30 20 30 10 20
Navy corpus 90 80 93 83 94 / 40 30 30 20 20