Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kcrp 231132
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi Texas
532 am CST Thu Nov 23 2017
See aviation below for 12z taf update.
VFR will prevail through the period. Light northerly winds today will
transition to a weak southerly flow tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 349 am CST Thu Nov 23 2017/
Short term (today through friday)...
With a persistent light north wind, seasonably cool temperatures,
low relative humidity, and sunny skies today, the weather across
south Texas will be another thing to be thankful for this
beautiful Thanksgiving day. After a very chilly start to the
morning, highs today will stay in the mid 60s along the coast to
the lower 70s inland. Through the period upper level riding will
remain centered around the Baja Peninsula and southwest coast.
Surface high pressure over the region will maintain a light
northerly flow today. Another cool night will develop with
radiational cooling occurring, bringing lows in the lower 40s
across most locations. As the surface high shifts further to the
east of the region weak onshore flow will return on Friday.
Temperatures will be around five degrees warmer tomorrow, but
still remain very dry and sunny.
Long term (friday night through wednesday)...
Pretty easy forecast through Tuesday before things get complicated
and/or models begin to diverge on the scenario for mid week. Thus,
the main forecast issue remains the timing of the upper level trough
and the associated front in the wake of the system moving east. GFS
is faster, European model (ecmwf) is slower and Canadian is somewhat in-between. Am
going to lean a bit more toward the GFS/Canadian for now but do have
to adjust some as superblend has some differences from this since
European model (ecmwf) is a part of the blend. Thus, will have the rain chances
(slight) Tuesday night and Wednesday, then keep it dry for Wednesday
night. That means cooler temperatures starting early Wednesday
morning and continuing during the day. If European model (ecmwf) is the correct
scenario, then temperatures will be warmer and the rain chances
delayed by 12 hours or so. For now, this is what the forecast calls
for. Did also have to adjust winds (some speeds and some
directions/backing) for the fropa to line up with surrounding
Before that, quiet and pleasant weather for the weekend and into
early next week, with the upper ridge in place for the weekend and
moving east on Monday ahead of the approaching trough on Tuesday.
Weak boundary on Sunday will only diminish temperatures a degree or
so, then warm again during the day Monday and Tuesday. Overall, the
superblend was used for the Sunday-Wednesday time frame except for
adjustments in winds (mentioned above) and temperatures with the
boundary Wednesday. Otherwise, superblend looked reasonable.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Corpus Christi 71 44 75 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Victoria 68 42 74 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Laredo 72 47 78 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 72 42 77 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Rockport 69 49 73 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 72 44 78 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 73 43 77 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
Navy corpus 70 53 74 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 0