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000 
FXUS64 KCRP 252207
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
407 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Water vapor imager depicts an upper disturbance approaching the
West Coast. NAM/ECMWF/GFS deterministic NWPs predict this system 
to move EWD across the SWRN CONUS and to the SRN Plains during the
period. The sfc ridge is predicted to move EWD while a sfc trough
develops over WRN Texas resulting in increasing onshore flow. 
Although the bulk of the associated 700-300mb Q-vector convergence
will remain north of the CWA/MSA...the GFS deterministic predicts
the CWA/MSA under the RRQ of an upper jet streak Sunday. 
AMSU/SSMI and SPoRT/CIRA TPW depict greater moisture over the SWRN
Gulf of Mexico. The NAM deterministic advects this moisture NWD 
across the CWA/MSA Sunday. Further...the foregoing deterministic 
NWPs predict a coastal trough to develop by 12z Sunday. Anticipate
that the combination of increasing moisture and surface/upper 
forcing will result in isolated/scattered convection over the 
CWA/MSA Sunday. Anticipate at least SCEC conditions with 
increasing onshore flow over the Coastal Waters overnight/Sunday. 
SCA conditions could occur over the Offshore MSA owing to 
significantly warmer SST values per SPoRT Composite SST. Yet... 
will maintain SCEC in the forecast owing to uncertainty. 42020 
buoy depict 8 sec swell period...yet WaveWatch output suggests 
swell heights below 1 ft. Thus...will maintain the low rip current
risk.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Friday Night)...

Better west-southwest flow aloft and continued onshore flow will 
allow temperatures to climb to well above average levels once again 
by Monday through Wednesday. A few streamer showers are possible on 
Monday across the eastern zones where the better moisture/Theta-E 
advection will be. Better chance of showers looks to be on Wednesday 
as the next weak cold front drops through the region. Timing of the 
passage has been pretty consistent the past several runs of the 
medium range guidance as it brings it through and pushes it 
offshore by noon.

Cooler temperatures and a drier airmass ensue on Thursday with 
stronger offshore winds expected so a Small Craft Advisory appears 
likely on Thursday. Winds relax a bit by Friday but turn onshore as 
high pressure to the northeast continues to move eastward. 
Temperatures may modify a bit heading into the weekend but we are 
still seeing some signs of a coastal trough/low pressure developing 
by the end of the long term period. This would include lots of cloud 
cover, plenty of isentropic lift and periods of rain helping to keep 
temperatures closer to average. 
  
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    57  77  66  86  69  /  10  30  20  10  10 
Victoria          49  75  64  84  69  /  10  30  20  20  10 
Laredo            55  82  61  93  67  /  10  20  10  10  10 
Alice             53  80  63  92  66  /  10  20  10  10  10 
Rockport          57  75  68  82  71  /  10  30  20  20  10 
Cotulla           50  78  60  91  65  /  10  20  10  10  10 
Kingsville        56  80  65  91  67  /  10  30  10  10  10 
Navy Corpus       61  75  68  81  70  /  10  30  20  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

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