Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
355 am EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
low pressure across New England will keep cyclonic flow across the
local area today. High pressure centered across the lower Ohio
Valley will finally be able to have a greater influence over our
weather tonight and for the first part of Sunday. A clipper will
cross the lower Great Lakes Sunday...crossing Northern Ohio and
northwest PA Sunday evening. It will take until Tuesday to get
high pressure firmly overhead again.
Near term /through today/...
lake effect showers ongoing across north central and northeast
Ohio early this morning. Models have continued to be too fast with
a wind shift and too quick to dry US out. Low level moisture is
still fairly deep. Cyclonic flow continues and best convergence
is beginning to shift east. Main band with a connection to Lake
Huron now centered over lake and Geauga counties. Ever so slowly
this will continue to shift east. Expect greater influence from
upstream ridge to not really arrive until this evening. Therefore
lake effect rain showers will continue for the Cleveland Metro
area this morning...shifting east into far northeast Ohio for this
afternoon. Expecting much more of a scattered nature to the
showers by the time they reach into PA. Core of the cold air aloft
is overhead today. That combined with the continued cloud
cover...temperatures will struggle. Now Northwest Ohio will see
the best breaks in the overcast this morning...but that too will
tend to fill in for the afternoon.
Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...
there may still be a few leftover showers across NW PA
tonight...but otherwise surface ridging will be backing the flow
across Ohio and will go with a dry forecast there. Temperatures
will drop back after dark...but for the most part hold steady
overnight in the lower/mid 40s. Decent warm air advection will be
taking place by Sunday morning ahead of a compact/potent clipper
to move across the lower Great Lakes. In fact 800 mb temps will climb
to +10c. High temperatures Sunday will likely climb into the 60s
Ohio/upper 50s PA. A quick shot of showers with good upper
dynamical support will take place Sunday evening/Sunday
night...with the vast majority of the showers out of the area by
Monday morning. Precip chances will be focused across the lake and
into northeast Ohio/NW PA. A minor shortwave moves across the
eastern lakes Monday. Additional moisture and temperatures cold
enough to support some lake effect showers are possible for NW PA
Monday night. This latest system will again draw temperatures back
down slightly below seasonal norms for Monday and Tuesday. High
pressure centered across central Ontario Canada will spread across
the area and provide for fair weather on Tuesday and Tuesday
Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...
models in decent agreement with a storm system that will dive into
the central Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will bring increasing
chances of rain Wednesday night into Thursday. On Thursday the
models begin to diverge with one model remaining progressive and the
other cutting off an area of low pressure near the lower Ohio River
valley. So at some point on Thursday the confidence in the forecast
decreases significantly. Have gone with likely pops for Wednesday
night into early Thursday. Conditions attempt to dry out from west
to east of Friday but this is very uncertain.
High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly below
seasonal averages. Slightly warmer by Friday with highs back to
seasonal averages that range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
cooler air continues to spill across the warm waters of Lake Erie
tonight. This has generated lake effect cloud cover for most
locations. The MVFR, maybe patchy IFR, seems to be limited to
where the heavier showers exist.
Drier air will move into Northwest Ohio first with the low end VFR cloud
cover eroding. There may be a period of clear skies across Northwest
Ohio before the next clipper storm system spreads VFR cloud cover
around 5000 feet back into the region. These clouds will reach the
eastern areas during the evening. However across the eastern half
of Northern Ohio and northwest PA the MVFR/IFR conditions around the lake
effect showers will continue. The bands of showers will work up
the Lakeshore into northwest PA early in the afternoon then slowly
decrease in coverage through the evening.
Northwest winds will remain gusty with 15 to 25 knots common. Winds will
gradually shift to a more westerly direction as they decrease
through the evening hours.
Outlook...NE Ohio/northwest PA will have non-VFR ceilings through Sunday
morning and again late Sunday night into Monday.
northwest winds will remain in the 15 to 25 knot range through the
day. Winds will begin to decrease tonight into Sunday as they shift
to a more westerly direction. We may be able to remove a portion of
the central Lakeshore Small Craft Advisory early on Sunday but the
longer fetch into Ashtabula and Erie counties shoreline will likely
keep waves up into the afternoon. Even after a brief lull in the
small craft conditions it appears that they will return Sunday night
into Monday in the wake of a clipper storm system. Winds dont really
relax all that much until Tuesday with high pressure briefly taking
control of the region.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for lez143>149.