Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kcle 231403 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1003 am EDT sun Apr 23 2017

high pressure was over the lower Great Lakes. Low pressure will move
up the East Coast early in the week. A cold front from the plain
states will cross the Midwest on Wednesday and may reach the local
area Wednesday night or Thursday.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
no changes to previous forecast with this update.

Original "today" discussion...
high pressure will continue to push east across the Great Lakes
today. The models show an increase in higher level moisture
this afternoon and some cirrus will probably develop over the
eastern counties but it may well remain thin. The north-northeast flow will
start out light and pick up a bit with the day time mixing. The
impact will be confined mostly near Lake Erie where temperatures
will hold in the 50s. Warmer elsewhere with highs in the 60s.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
high pressure noses into the area for Sunday. Models show dry
air across the area Sunday that will last into Monday morning as
the high and the dry air get squeezed between an approaching
cold front from the north and moisture moving toward the area
from the southeast from low pressure near the SC coast. Think we
will get through Monday afternoon partly cloudy across the east
half of the area but as moisture continue to increase Monday
evening and overnight believe skies will turn mostly cloudy.
Tuesday the NAM GFS and European model (ecmwf) show moisture/clouds across much
of the area but most east half. Will begin the Tuesday forecast
mostly cloudy east and decrease clouds through the day as this
moisture hopefully thins. Will continue the trend into Tuesday
night as moisture associated with the East Coast low pulls east
and moisture associated with an approaching cold front should
not quite be here. Highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday reaching
the lower 70s on Tuesday except for nwrn PA.


Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...
a weak cold front will drift southeast across the northern lakes
by tonight. With heights progged to rise across the western lakes
and the flow aloft becoming more zonal and plenty of subsidence, it
would appear that the front will slide off toward New England
although it may get close to the northeast shore of Lake Erie

We will be between systems Monday into Tuesday. High pressure will
build at the surface and aloft across eastern Canada. A trough/cold
front will begin to track across the plains states. The east
northeast surface flow will begin to increase on Monday as the
pressure differential increases so we will still be dealing with a
lake breeze, especially west of Cleveland including Sandusky and
Toledo where temperatures will hold in the 50s. Around 70 inland.

The real fly in the ointment is low pressure that will move slowly up
the East Coast. A number of progs continue to show quantitative precipitation forecast sneaking into
extreme northeast Ohio and northwest PA. Typically we do not get
synoptic type precip this far west but the limiting stream line and
diffluence aloft suggest that precipitation is possible from late
Monday night into Tuesday morning. We have a"slight chance"
mentioned in the forecast and will continue to keep a "slight
chance" for extreme NE Ohio/northwest PA.

The models continue to slow down the arrival of the next
front. Not a surprise given the slow movement of the upper low along
the East Coast and the deepening trough out west. Will hold off on
the chance for showers/storms until Wednesday night. Temperatures
will continue to recover. 850 mb temperatures are progged to warm to
at least 13c with the European model (ecmwf) progging 14-15c across Northwest
Ohio which would support highs around 80 by Wednesday.


Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
only some cirrus later today. Light and variable winds will
become east to northeast.

Outlook...possibly non-VFR over the east on Tuesday and entire
area Wednesday.


light and variable winds will become onshore this afternoon as high
pressure remains over the lake. Choppy conditions expected on the
lake Monday as winds turn to the NE and increase to 10 to 15 knots
as a low pressure system tracks across the Tennessee. Winds become
southeast at 10 to 20 knots Tuesday night but a Small Craft Advisory
is not expected. Models a little slower with the timing of the
next front. Next front not due now until Thursday.


Cle watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations