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FXUS61 KCLE 280159

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
959 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A series of lows will continue to move northeast across the region 
through early next week.


Updated the PoPs to better reflect ongoing activity across the
area. A few light showers or sprinkles from near Cleveland to 
the Akron-Canton area will continue to move northeast this
evening. Have mostly removed thunder chances for early tonight
except for a chance across extreme southern areas. A broad
swath of showers south of the CWA will move into the area from
southwest to northeast from late this evening into tonight. 

Previous discussion...
The next in a series of lows will track up the Ohio valley tonight 
spreading another round of fairly widespread shra over the cwa. 
Think most of the area will see measurable rainfall but the far nw 
has a chance to be missed. There could be some thunder for mainly 
the south half since the low will be tracking across the southern 
part of the state keeping the more unstable air further to the south.

The track of the low will cause winds to turn off of lake erie, 
drawing colder air south into the area as the night progresses so 
lows near the lake will likely be getting close to 40 by daybreak 


The models differ a little but in general the rain should be exiting 
off to the ESE by midday Tue but the clouds will be slow to move out 
until the high to the nw pushes enough drier air in late in the day 
and Tue night. Thus, the northerly flow off of lake erie and the 
clouds will make for a cool day with highs near the lake likely to 
not get out of the 40s.

The high ridging south into the cwa should provide dry but cool 
conditions Tue night thru Wed night then the next low in the series 
will head into the area Thu night. Rain from this system should 
spread ne across the cwa Thu and Thu night. The models differ on the 
track of the low but if a more southern track occurs then winds will 
stay ne off of lake erie keeping temps below normal near the lake.


Progressive pattern continues into the extended forecast. The first 
system currently over California as a trough will be cut off over 
the 4 corners region. It will pick up some Gulf moisture as it 
strengthens and moves northeast over the Tennessee Valley. High 
pressure over Quebec will slow the progression of the system, 
dragging out the duration of rainfall as an stationary front 
meanders somewhere near Lake Erie. At this time believe the rainfall 
amounts will not produce flooding, but will have to monitor as 
ground conditions continue to saturate. The low will deepen as it 
reaches the east coast with some low level wrap around moisture 
lingering over the lakes. Despite this temperatures will remain mild 
as the flow aloft remains zonal with little cold air advection. 
Sunday will be a transition day as the next system approaches from 
the west. There remains position and timing differences on either 
Sunday Night or Monday. Overall temperatures will remain mild with 
highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.


.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Low level moisture will increase overnight as low pressure 
located over southern Illinois at 00Z moves across southern 
Ohio. Already seeing some very light rain well ahead of low
moving across western and central Ohio. This will do little more
than increase the low level moisture a bit faster. Expect to see
some MVFR ceilings develop from south to north after 03Z. IFR
conditions will likely develop as the heavier rainfall moves
into the area near or shortly after 08z. Conditions will slowly
improve from southwest to northeast on Tuesday with some VFR
possible across NW Ohio around 21z. 

Winds will be light for a period this evening but should become
northeast to north at all locations. Winds will remain under 12

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR developing again on Thursday and continuing 
into Friday.


An area of low pressure over Quebec will lift away from the area 
overnight. However a secondary low over the southern plains will 
lift north into the Ohio Valley overnight. This feature will remain 
south of the lake which will switch the winds around to the 
northeast. Winds will be strongest over the western basin around 10 
to 15 knots, insufficient even with fetch waves to produce small 
craft advisory levels. A second low will move up from the Tennessee 
Valley. This feature combined with an area of high pressure 
extending east of the lake will increase northeast winds to around 
20 knots. This combined with fetch could produce 4 foot waves or 





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