Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 181332
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
932 am EDT Wed Oct 18 2017
high pressure will remain over the upper Ohio Valley into Sunday
before shifting off to the east. A cold front will slowly push east
across the area Sunday night through Monday night.
Near term /through tonight/...
850 mb temps are quite a bit warmer today than Tuesday and given
the fact we also started the day off warmer than yesterday think
the forecast highs may be a tad cool. Have gone ahead and bumped
readings up a couple to a few degrees all areas. Winds should
increase in a couple of hours and may have to go even warmer
with the midday update.
Previous.. enjoy the sunny and dry wx while we can before the
pattern changes early next week. High pressure over the upper Ohio
Valley will continue to dominate thru Thu with the abundant
sunshine allowing temps to warm to about 10 degrees above
normal. With the high keeping most of the atmosphere dry, a
dissipating cold front that moves east-southeast into the County Warning Area late Thu will
only be able to produce sct to maybe locally bkn clouds but no
Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
the models continue to show a weak cold front moving through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening associated with a surface low well
north in Canada. Moisture is very limited with the system and other
than a wind shift and a few clouds believe it will pass largely
unnoticed. Friday and Saturday high pressure and dry air will
continue to dominate. Sunday will likely remain dry as well however
another cold front will be approaching from the west. This front
however looks like it will be accompanied by a more significant
swath of moisture tapped from southerly flow out of the Gulf region
which will likely move in Sunday night and Monday although will have
a small chance pop west in the afternoon. Temps through the short
term will be mild with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday
and in the mid 70s Saturday and Sunday.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
there continues to be differences in timing of the approaching cold
front that will pass Sunday night and/or early Monday. For now will
continue to have highest pops west Sunday night and east on Monday
and Monday night. Tuesday much colder air settles in which will
likely get the lake involved in producing rain showers northeast
Ohio and nwrn PA. Highs Monday in the 60s and Tuesday near 60.
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions will continue with high pressure over the upper Ohio
Valley and nothing but a few patches of cirrus. South to SW winds
will pick up with diurnal mixing by midday but gusts should still
only top out in a 15-20 knot range. Winds will diminish some with
Outlook...non-VFR possible in shra late sun and Sun night.
current Small Craft Advisory allowed to expire at 4am. Winds
and waves have dropped below criteria most places. Waves in the
Erie area have been around to 4 foot mark but the trend of a slow
decrease should continue. Otherwise high pressure over the area will
weaken its influence over the area briefly as a weak cold front
crosses the lake Thursday night. Will need to monitor this as
southwest flow ahead of the front may cause conditions to again
reach small craft levels. Thursday night through Sunday winds are
expected to remain 10 to 20 knots or less as high pressure over the
lake drifts east.