Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 171802 cca
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
102 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017
low pressure will cross the Great Lakes today. Warmer air will
spread across the area this morning. A weak cold front will push
across the area this afternoon. An upper air disturbance will slide
across the lower Great Lakes tonight. High pressure will build in
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the initial band of shra with the warm front has pushed NE of the
area. Sct shra with just enough for some tsra will be a good threat
until a weak cold front over western Ohio pushes east across the cwa
to taper the threat to just some isolated shra in NW PA by nightfall.
Winds may gust to 35 mph in the west half of the area as some of the
stronger winds aloft mix down.
Spring like forecast highs generally in the mid and upper 50s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
strong short wave is progged to slide across the lower Great Lakes
tonight. The atmosphere will have dried out but will need to mention
at least a chance of precip north of the track which includes most
of the forecast area. The best chance would be in the hills of
northeast Ohio and northwest PA, especially in the snowbelt where the
precip may be enhanced. 850 mb temperatures are progged to barely
get below 0c. Thickness values suggest rain showers but given the
time of year and enough upward motion, some of the higher terrain of
northwest PA may see some wet flakes or a few sleet pellets mix in
Precip should move east early on Wednesday. It will be difficult to
get clearing with weak cold advection, cyclonic circulation, and the
ridge axis to the west. Highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Temperatures may just sneak below freezing Wednesday night.
High clouds will increase on Thursday but we have a chance of seeing
some sunshine. Temperatures will rebound and continue well above
normal with highs in the 40s.
The models are in relative agreement with a moist south flow and a
piece of energy rotating around an upper low in the plains states.
Rain showers may arrive Thursday night and will likely push north
across the area on Friday. Forecast highs near guidance, generally
from the lower 50s to the mid 40s.
Long term /Saturday through Monday/...
broad eastern Continental U.S. Ridge/return flow regime during the extended
period will keep the region warm and wet. A few showers are possible
Saturday in the wake of a departing low, however will only mention
slight chance in forecast during the morning hours, with dry
conditions through Saturday night. Attention turns to a large
mid/upper low that will deepen from the Southern Plains Sunday
through the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Monday night/Tuesday. This will
increase pops across the area Sunday, with likely pops Sunday
night/Monday, returning to chance pops Monday night/Tuesday. Brief
ridging will work into the region behind the low on Tuesday, with a
brief dry period late Tuesday/Tuesday night before another potential
system that could bring rain to the area mid/late next week.
Above normal temperatures expected throughout the long term period,
with highs Saturday through Monday in the upper 40s to mid 50s and
lows in the mid 30s/low 40s. Slight cooler temperatures, but still
well above normal, expected Tuesday with highs in the 40s.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
scattered showers will continue at cak/yng/eri through 20z before
exiting to the east. A break in the low clouds is accompanying the
cold front which extended from cle-mfd at 18z. This period of VFR
ceilings will be short lived as ceilings decline to MVFR and
eventually IFR behind the front. Southwest winds have also gusted
to 20-30 knots with the frontal passage. IFR ceilings will become
widespread tonight with some areas of low IFR expected. Another
trough will swing through between 04-12z with scattered light
showers re-developing with the best coverage downwind of Lake
Erie. Visibilities will start to improve between 14-16z but IFR
ceilings will linger into the afternoon.
Outlook...periods of non-VFR will linger into Wednesday night all
areas and Thursday in the east. Non-VFR returns Thursday night
and continues into Saturday.
east/southeast flow over Lake Erie this morning will veer southwest
by this afternoon 10 to 20 knots as a low pressure system lifts
northeast across the Central Lakes. Winds will slowly diminish
Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds across the lakes, but
will remain southwest 5 to 15 knots through Thursday morning, before
backing easterly through Friday ahead of another low pressure