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FXUS61 KCLE 251712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1212 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

A cold front over the east will continue off to the east this 
morning while a reinforcing cold front drops southeast across the 
area later today. High pressure will push northeast over the region 
for sunday and monday then shift off to the east for tuesday. A low 
will move northeast from the plains tuesday across the lower lakes 
wednesday pulling a cold front through the area.


Not much showing up on radar with a few showers at the far east
and west ends of the area. Area of clearing continues to move 
across the area but will fill in shortly leaving skies mainly 
cloudy. Expect lake effect activity to get going later this 
afternoon east of KCLE. Elsewhere...precip will be negligible 
and have lowered chances most areas. Have adjusted temps 
slightly as well. 

Previous...The cold front producing the threat for tsra pushing
east of the cwa at this time so threat for tsra appears to be 
done. Band of shra with the front will still take another 3 to 4
hours to shift east of the area.

Wrap moisture aided by an upper trough crossing the cwa will keep a 
lingering threat for shra today that will shift into just the 
snowbelt by nightfall. Temps aloft and at the surface should get 
cold enough to start to support frozen precip from late morning on 
in a west to east pattern of change. Due to the warm ground temps 
and ending of precip most places, little or no accumulation is 
expected. Temps will fall all day, into the low to mid 30s by 
evening. Winds will gust 30 to 40 mph at times.


Marginal lake effect conditions will be in place tonight but will 
become less favorable by the end of the night as high pressure 
builds ne into the snowbelt. The shsn should be done by sun 
afternoon leaving one to locally 3 or 4 inches of accumulation for 
the event in the snowbelt, especially inland nw pa. Lows sat night 
should fall into the low to mid 20s then only rise into the low 30s 
east to around 40 west for sunday.

A flatter more zonal flow later sun thu mon night will allow a 
series of weak upper disturbances to quickly move east across the 
area trying to induce some light precip. However, lower levels 
appear too dry until late sun night or monday for anything more than 
flurries. Temps should warm enough so that by the time any 
worthwhile precip gets going on mon, it should come mostly in the 
form of rain.

The main upper trough digging over the west sends another weak s/w 
ene into the area for tue which could enhance overrunning along the 
warm front over the area mon night and result in a little more 
enhanced precip. Precip type appears in question as temps aloft will 
be continuing to slowly warm. Right now the models indicate the the 
ssw half of the cwa should see just rain with only the far ne seeing 
a good chance to see more snow than rain.


Scattered to numerous showers expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning 
as stalled boundary lifts back north as a warm front. Temperatures 
expected to surpass the 50 degree mark in all areas again as the 
front lifts to the north, although may take until late in the day to 
clear the lakeshore areas. A low level jet is expected to slide 
overhead on Tuesday night as low pressure slides northeast from the 
Plains to the central Great Lakes. This jet should provide enough 
lift for scattered showers to develop again overnight. Upper level 
trough is forecast to deepen over the Plains Tuesday night before 
curling northeast towards the Great lakes on Wednesday. Moisture 
will surge north into the area ahead of this system and expect 
showers in the southeast initially to expand with the passage of the 
cold front. Given ample cloud cover and periods of showers kept 
highs on Wednesday in the mid 50s, except closer to 50 in TOL. Much 
colder air wraps in behind the system with lingering precipitation 
transitioning to snow showers on Wednesday night. Lake effect snow 
showers will linger downwind of Lake Erie on Thursday and Thursday 
night then decrease on Friday as moisture dwindles and a ridge 
builds in.


.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Cold front now well SE of the forecast area. Secondary trough
will move across the area this evening.  Some scattered snow
showers with the trough...with little or no accumulation. After
that mainly just flurries for most locations. Lake effect snow 
showers will develop across the northern snowbelt overnight as 
850mb temps dip to -14c. West winds gusting into the lower 30s 
will gradually diminish after sunset. High pressure will build 
in Sunday afternoon cutting off the snow.

OUTLOOK...-shsn across the snowbelt Sunday morning. Areas on 
non-vfr Monday and Tuesday, returning Wednesday night.


Cold front will shift east of Lake Erie this morning with winds 
increasing as cooler air spreads over the lake. The Small Craft 
Advisory is already in effect on the western basin and will begin at 
10 AM from Cleveland eastward. Winds expected to increase to 30 
knots this afternoon and will approach Gale Force on the far east 
end of the lake for a couple hours this evening. Winds will decrease 
from west to east into Sunday morning with the Small Craft Advisory 
ending on the east half of the lake as winds back to the southwest 
by late morning. 

A ridge will build over the lake on Monday then shift east on 
Tuesday. A series of low pressure systems will slowly move east 
across the lakes from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Winds 
will increase considerably on Wednesday night with the passage of a 
cold front as the low moves off to the east.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ142>145.



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