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FXUS61 KCLE 190329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1029 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

High pressure will build over the area resulting in a warming
trend through early next week. Light rain and snow will spread
north into the area Saturday night into Sunday morning becoming
all rain by Sunday afternoon. Unsettled weather continues into
at least Tuesday as an upper low tracks east across the Plains
towards the area.


Not much weather going on tonight but did make a few more minor
upward adjustments to some of the hourly temperature forecasts
overnight based on current trends and some of the meso model 
forecasts. The wind continues to keep the boundary layer well 
mixed, especially near the Lake Erie lakeshore. This resulted 
in a few minor upward changes to the overnight low temperature 
forecast. The next batch of high clouds diving across the 
western Great Lakes should continue to thin although patches of 
cirrus will arrive later tonight and Friday. No other changes 
for the late evening update.

Original NEAR TERM discussion...
An upper level ridge of high pressure currently extending from 
Arizona northeast into the Dakotas continued to build east into 
the area resulting in a warming trend. Temperatures this 
afternoon were generally between 5 and 10 degrees warmer 
compared to yesterday afternoon but still between 5 and 10 
degrees cooler compared to normal. 

Temperatures are forecast to continue to climb on Friday as the
upper ridge axis shifts east. Temperatures will be near normal
tomorrow with readings generally in the mid 30s. The forecast
remains dry through at least Friday night as high pressure
remains firmly in place.

Breezy southwest winds will be present through at least early
Saturday morning as strong surface high pressure dominates
Alabama and Mississippi while surface low pressure remains over


For a change, nearly zonal flow takes place aloft across the lower 
48 states during this period.  However, this will be short lived as 
deep digging trough will dive into the western states Saturday night 
and amplify a ridge over the east.  This will contribute to a fairly 
strong high pressure over the southeastern United States that will 
move off the coast Sunday.  A strong surface low pressure will 
develop and move northeast out of the Oklahoma Panhandle in response 
to the upper level trough and low pressure.  The combination of the 
low pressure at the surface and the high to the southeast will 
create a warm air advection pattern across the area.  Moisture will 
be limited across the area Saturday night into Sunday and QPF 
amounts are expected to be low.  As cold front approaches, better 
moisture depth will take place ahead of the front.  There is a 
potential for liquid precipitation with surface temperatures in the 
extreme east just below or at freezing.  So, there is a possibility 
for some light freezing rain late Saturday night into Sunday morning 
over the east.  Temperatures will be warming up through the period 
as warm air advection becomes stronger.


Model trends in reasonably good agreement. Intense low tracks 
across the Northern Lake Monday night forcing another arctic 
front across the forecast area. Rain will turn to snow 
overnight. Secondary trough swings across the Lower Lakes 
Tuesday morning giving a widespread dusting of snow. Lake effect
snow showers set up Tuesday night across the northern snowbelt.
Luckily the Lake is mainly ice covered, and the deep moisture 
shifts quickly east of the Lake. Another large arctic high 
pushes SE across the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday.


.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue with patchy high clouds and gusty
SSW winds at times. Marginal low level wind shear tonight as 
the low level jet intensifies between 2-5K across the lower 
Great Lakes.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR developing later Sunday and especially 
Monday in rain showers.


Persistent southwest flow will occur through the forecast period. 
Latest satellite imagery shows ice moving northeast on the lake. 
This could cause ice to clump up over time as air temperatures 
continue to warm through the weekend. Otherwise, not expecting any 
major weather systems to affect the lake until Monday when the cold 
front approaches the lake.





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