Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 200147
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
947 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018
a cold front just south of the region will stall in central Ohio
this evening. Weak low pressure moving east along the boundary
overnight will force the front north into the region early
Wednesday before dropping south again Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The front will return again towards the end of the week,
forced north by another low approaching from the west.
Near term /through Wednesday night/...
the precip over the area continues to fall apart which isn't
surprising given the dry low level easterly flow. Still there is
a decent shot for showers overnight as a weak surface low tracks
across the local area. However...the threat for strong
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall is diminished. Best
chances for widespread showers will be toward daybreak. No
changes to temps.
Previous...the cold front is now well south of the area
extending from Iowa east across central Ohio. Convection has
developed invof the boundary south and west of the area. Radar
however shows another batch of convection tracking east across
Southern Lower Michigan. Have followed the hrrr which track this ESE
onto the western counties late afternoon. Convection could
continue to drift ESE as it weakens. Otherwise have held onto
chance pops south/southwest through the evening given current
proximity. Overnight models bring good moisture back from the
WSW as weak low pressure moves into western Ohio forcing the front
back north as a warm front. By 12z Wednesday the front should
again be in the area. Will increase pops through the chance
category overnight west to east with likely pops for the
southern half of the area on Wednesday and chance north. For the
afternoon the front will again begin to track south in the wake
of the low moving east. This will draw drier more stable air in
from the north esp mid/late afternoon. Wednesday highs in the
70s. Lows tonight low to mid 60s and Wednesday night a few
Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
the overall pattern is changing and trending toward a deep upper
level low pressure system that will be nearly vertically stacked as
it approaches the forecast area. The upper level low pressure
system will dive southeast into the middle Mississippi Valley region
by Thursday and then shift northeast over Ohio by Saturday.
Meanwhile, the upper level low will trend toward filling slightly
and become a negatively tilted trough over the area. This will
force the surface low to lift northeast across the area Friday into
Saturday. Copious amounts of moisture appears that it will get
wrapped up into the system and the threat for an extended period of
rain can be expected Friday and Saturday. Rainfall amounts of
between a half an inch to around an inch is possible during the two
day period. At this time, it appears cape values will be fairly low
limiting the threat for thunderstorms. This precipitation should be
primarily stratiform type rain with the storm system. Warm front in
advance of the storm system is expected to move north through the
area and not get hung up as a stationary front causing heavy
rainfall. Temperatures through the forecast period expected to hover
in the 70s for highs each day and lows in the 60s with the cooler
air in place and then precipitation and cloud cover cooling effects
for Friday and Saturday.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
models are in pretty good agreement on the overall pattern Saturday
night into early next week. Low pressure over the eastern Great
Lakes Saturday night will be pushing east and moving into New
England by Sunday morning. Lingering precip may impact the eastern
half of the area during the evening with mainly dry conditions
across the area overnight. A backdoor cold front will sink south
through the Great Lakes Sunday, but will wash out as it moves into
the local area. Have continued with slight chance/low chance pops
Sunday across the area. Dry conditions are expected by Sunday
evening with high pressure building south through the Great Lakes
into the region. The high will remain over the region through at
least Tuesday providing dry conditions and more seasonable
temperatures. Highs during the period will be near or slightly below
normal in the mid to upper 70s Sunday and Monday and the upper 70s
to low 80s by Tuesday. Lows will generally be in the upper 50s to
Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/...
lot's of precip heading toward the area but the first wave may
dissipate as it runs into the dry easterly flow at low levels. A
wave of low pressure will move across the area overnight and
better chances for showers exist late tonight. For the next
couple of hours will put some tempos in at fdy and mfd.
Overnight all areas will get a mention. Not sure about thunder
chances given the expected weakening but fdy may have a chance
the next couple of hours. Cigs will become MVFR behind the low.
Similar to today it may take much of Wednesday for things to
return to VFR. Light easterly flow will become light and
variable for a time then north to NE on Wed.
Outlook...non-VFR Tuesday through Wednesday and again Friday
into Saturday in showers and thunderstorms.
lot of marine headlines up at this moment with winds out of the
northeast at 15 to 25 knots from about just east of Cleveland up to
Erie. Small Craft Advisory and beach hazards will persist until
about 8 PM when winds are expected to diminish below criteria. The
northeast flow is also causing water levels to rise on the west and
a Lakeshore Flood Warning is now in effect until 8 PM this evening.
Expecting water levels to continue to rise this afternoon with the
gusty winds on the lake. Winds will increase again Wednesday morning
from the northeast at 15 to 25 knots and will likely need another
Small Craft Advisory for a brief period Wednesday morning into early
afternoon. Winds diminish again for Wednesday night out of the
northeast and then gradually shift to an easterly direction by
Thursday night. As a deep low pressure system approaches from the
southwest Friday winds will shift back to the southeast and begin to
increase. The low will move northeast of the area by Saturday and
shift the flow around to westerly and then northwest by Sunday.