Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
637 am EDT Tuesday Jul 26 2016
a surface trough will sag southward across the region today. High
pressure is then expected to build across the area in the wake of
the trough late this afternoon into tonight. The high will
gradually weaken Wednesday into early Thursday. Another weakening
cold front is expected to move to southern Ohio and stall by
Thursday night. This boundary will wobble across Ohio Friday into
the weekend as a couple pieces of jet energy pass overhead.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
only minor changes have been made to temperatures and sky cover
to reflect current trends.
surface trough will move southward across the region today.
However we are concerned that it will be slow enough to allow for
an isolated thunderstorm or two late this afternoon into the
evening across the southern County Warning Area (cwa). This will
be the region that could see dewpoint values hold in the 60s.
For the remainder of the region there will be a gradual decrease
in the high level cloud cover. This should allow for a decent
amount of sunshine across the north. Highs for the day will be
cooler than recent days but with the dry ground most locations
will warm well into the 80s.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
maybe a couple thunderstorms across the south this evening but
then all locations should become dry as high pressure takes over.
The high should dry things out enough to allow lows to range from
the mid 50s inland northwest PA and near the Ohio/PA border to the lower
to mid 60s elsewhere.
Another weakening cold front looks like it will arrive on Thursday
with increased chances of thunderstorms. This boundary will
attempt to move to southern Ohio and stall by Thursday night.
This boundary will then wobble across Ohio on Friday as a piece
of jet energy passes overhead. Scattered convection will be
possible Friday into Friday night.
Temperatures through the short term will be within a couple
degrees of seasonal averages.
Long term /Saturday through Monday/...
had to retain a 20 to 30 percent chance of a shower/thunderstorm
through the weekend. Leftover frontal boundary in the vicinity gets
washed out over a number of days. Otherwise there is not too much
else to trigger and support thunderstorms. Weak troughing remains
across the Great Lakes with the upper ridge across the Central
Plains. Seasonal temperatures can be expected for the weekend.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
high pressure will be building in across the terminals today...but
not before one more wind shift by mid morning. Winds are expected
to come around to the north before going light/variable for
Tuesday night. Skies will consist of few/scattered at 5k feet floating
under a scattered/bkn250 layer. With dewpoints slow to drop...could very
well see some early morning MVFR vsbys.
Outlook...non-VFR possible in thunderstorms Thursday/Friday.
wind shift to the north finally took place early this morning. This
will be enough to pick up waves to around 3 feet. As the high builds
in from the west winds will decrease for all but the far east end
which will see winds back to the west for the afternoon. Otherwise
through Saturday no small craft advisories are expected. High
pressure in place until a front sags southward across the lake on
Thursday. At that point winds will come around to the northeast as
another high builds just north of the lake for Saturday.