Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 220331
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1031 PM EST sun Jan 21 2018
a warm front will lift north of the area early Monday morning.
Low pressure will move across the Central Plains to the Great
Lakes by Monday night pushing a cold front across the area on
Monday night. The upper trough will cross the area on Tuesday
and another trough will follow on Wednesday. High pressure will
build in from the west by Thursday.
Near term /through Monday night/...
the fog has improved a bit in the Toledo area but will continue
with the dense fog advisory through 4 am since there is still
some patches of dense fog around and to the immediate west.
Patchy dense fog was reported elsewhere in northern OH and
northwest PA. Will mention it in the forecast but it does not
seem widespread enough to necessitate a dense fog advisory.
Temperatures will be steady or perhaps even rise a degree or two
before daybreak. The rain will increase in coverage into the
early morning hours, then begin to shift off to the north around
daybreak. No other changes for the late evening update.
Original near term discussion...
quite complicated forecast for tonight. Fog has worsened across
the Toledo area over the last hour. They really are on the edge
of the dense fog across the rest of Northwest Ohio. Have issued a
Special Weather Statement for now. Others had improved this
afternoon. There will likely be additional fog develop this
evening, but expect it to be patchy. Light rain will develop as
moisture depth gets a little deeper and the warm front advances
northward. Temperatures will not fall far tonight and snow melt
A big portion of Monday will likely be cloudy but dry with rain
exiting in the morning and the area of showers advancing from
the west late in the afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the
50s. Some guidance suggests hitting 60 but feel that may be
pushing it with the early rain and cloud cover.
Bulk of rain then arrives for Monday evening. Have made little
change to the forecast and the quantitative precipitation forecast. Still looking at a third of
an inch for all and upwards of three quarters of an inch for
Northwest Ohio and far eastern Ohio/northwest PA. This should keep
flooding concerns low. Temperatures drop back through the 40s
but keep precip type all rain through Monday night.
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
a surface cold front will be east of the area at the start of the
period with cold air advection ongoing. A reinforcing cold front
will arrive later in the day with 850 mb temps and critical
thicknesses getting low enough for a change back to frozen precip as
early as Tuesday evening. Will continue with likely wording for
Tuesday and then will begin to slowly dry things out from west to
east Tuesday night as surface low pressure finally pulls off well to
the Northeast. Lake effect snow will occur downwind of the lake
Tuesday night into Wednesday night. This will be far from an ideal
set up with the northwest flow and 850 mb temps perhaps getting as
cold as neg 12. Already have scattered or high chance pops in the
forecast and that seems reasonable for now. Western areas could even
see some light snow showers from Lake Michigan make it to the area.
Will need to keep an eye on that the next couple of days. Ridging
will finally reach the area early Thursday and will dry things out
at that time. The airmass looks nowhere near as cold as it did a
few days ago and we should be able to get close to normal highs for
both Wednesday and Thursday.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
the period will start out cold and dry with high pressure over the
area. The high will shift off to the east Fri to allow warmer and
more moist air to start spreading back into the region. A cold front
is expected to push across the area sometime Sat night thru early
Sun night bringing colder temps back to the area. The first chance
of rain looks to be later Fri night in the west then high likelihood
with the frontal passage Sat thru sun for most of the area.
Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
ktol will likely stay in the dense LIFR fog until on toward
daybreak Monday. A tricky forecast elsewhere as a lot of the
taf sites are tickling the IFR thresholds. Expect the ceilings
and visibilities to come down for a while tonight as the drizzle
and showers increase, then start to improve to MVFR and
eventually VFR on Monday as the warm front lifts north. South
winds will be light tonight but increase and become gusty at
times on Monday. Additional rain will move into the area from
the west later Monday and Monday evening as the cold front
Outlook...non-VFR for much of Tuesday through Wednesday. Gusty
winds by Tuesday.
light southerly winds will continue tonight and then begin to
gradually increase tomorrow. The flow will become southwest and
increase even more Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure
moves over the Central Lakes and a cold front crosses Lake Erie.
Could see sustained southwest winds Tuesday top out in the middle
20s. A second reinforcing front will arrive Tuesday afternoon and
evening with the flow becoming west to northwest. Speeds will
diminish some on Wednesday but northwest flow will continue through
the end of day. A ridge will eventually cross the lake on Thursday
with southerly winds returning for the end of the week. Haven't
gotten a look at the lake today but a lot of ice remains. It will be
interesting to see how the floes move around the next few days with
the changing winds.
Ohio...dense fog advisory until 4 am EST Monday for ohz003-006-007.