Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 221736
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
1236 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017
low pressure over Lake Superior will move across the Great Lakes.
The trailing cold front will sag over the forecast area Thursday
then lift back north as a warm front Thursday night. A strong low
will cut across the central Great Lakes Friday night forcing a
strong cold front across the forecast area.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
showers continue to track across the eastern portion of the
County Warning Area. Most of this will be into PA shortly as the
3h jet pulls eastward across PA/NY. Cloud cover has filled back
in the the afternoon mixing. The region will remain well above
seasonal averages. Did make some minor changes to the hourly
temperatures to reflect the cooler pockets of air that were
generated by the showers.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/...
little change in the short term forecast. Models track low
pressure currently over Lake Superior...east across the Great
Lakes. A very weak cool front will make its way into northern
portions of the County Warning Area Thursday morning. It will stall out
somewhere across Northern Ohio before lifting back north as a
warm front Thursday night. Expect a few showers to develop with
the best chances near Lake Erie.
Friday will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures soaring
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. But change is on the way.
Models continue to track strong low pressure system across the
Central Lakes Friday night...dragging a strong cold front across
the forecast area. Model timing a little slower today...but
still potential for a few strong to severe storms Northwest Ohio Friday
evening. The Low Cape high shear environment would support
Much colder air behind the front will plunge temps to near normal
for the weekend.
Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
volatile weather pattern will continue during the extended portion
of the forecast with near normal temperatures on Sunday returning to
well above normal values by Tuesday. Long range models vary with
respect to how fast the ridge can build overhead on Sunday which
will have an impact on coverage of snow showers downwind of Lake
Erie. The airmass will trend drier during the day before moisture
arrives with the passage of the next shortwave on Sunday night. This
should cause an increase in snow showers but still too much spread
in the details to have much confidence in potential for
After that a warming trend will resume as southwesterly flow
develops ahead of a trough taking shape over the western United
States. Moisture will advect north towards the area with increasing
chances of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
MVFR/IFR conditions are widespread across the area and will
continue through the 24 hour taf period. It is possible a few
spots could see low end VFR cigs for a few hour period later
this afternoon into this evening before cigs lower once again.
Fog will develop overnight, with the most dense fog expected in
the ktol/kfdy area. LIFR conditions are expected in many areas
overnight into early tomorrow morning.
Outlook...non-VFR continues Thursday/Thursday night then returns
southwest winds near 10 knots will continue today. Low pressure will
approach the Great Lakes from the west this evening with southwest
winds increasing to 10-20 knots overnight. As this system continues
to the east into Thursday a weak cold front will settle south across
the lake with waves building to 2 to 4 feet.
A stronger low pressure system will track out of the plains on
Friday. Easterly winds will increase to 10-20 knots on Friday
morning then shift around to the south as a warm front lifts north
across the lake. Winds will increase out of the southwest with the
passage of a cold front Friday night into Saturday and small craft
advisories will likely be needed on the lake, continuing into Sunday
on the eastern half.