Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcle 260106
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
905 PM EDT sun Jun 25 2017
an upper trough will linger over the Great Lakes region though
Tuesday. A series of weak cold fronts will cross the local area
the next couple of days. High pressure will build over the
region for the middle part of the week but another storm system
will impact the region late in the week.
Near term /through Monday/...
only shra showing up on radar now over leri as land temps starting
to cool with sunset causing the lake to now become the more unstable
source. Diurnal cu has flattened for much of the area and will
continue to slowly dissipate but won't completely go away due to
increasing upper energy. Height fall with colder air aloft should
start to support More Lake enhanced shra for mainly the second half
of the night.
Temps will be unseasonably cool tonight with lows in the low to mid
50s except upper 50s right along the Lakeshore.
Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/...
should see more precip coverage on Monday than today and
yesterday as yet another piece of energy moves across the area.
This will cause a further dip in mid level temps resulting in
more unstable air. Moisture will also be a tad better so will
mention showers and possible thunder all areas tomorrow and
tomorrow evening. Best chances in the south and west will be
tomorrow evening as another slug of energy moves across central
Ohio. Ridging will begin later Tuesday and western areas should
be dry. Lingering showers will persist in the east into early
evening. The surface ridge will move east of the area by
daybreak Wednesday which with allow a warm up to begin.
Wednesday should be dry and still think much of Wednesday night
will also be dry especially if the new 12z models are correct.
Have again lowered precip chances prior to 12z Thursday. Best
chances by that time will be in the north.
Highs both Monday an Tuesday will struggle to reach 70 degrees
most areas. Have used a blend of guidance most of the period.
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
after the surface high/upper ridge shift east, area will return to a
more seasonable set up and with a frontal boundary draped across the
lower Great Lakes/Northern Ohio/PA, daily precipitation chances will
need to be in the forecast. Depending on timing of impulses, there
will be a lull between one lead wave Thursday and the next Friday
night. But since this is far out yet, have generic likely precip
chances for several periods. Precipitation chances finally dwindle
behind the front as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will be
Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/...
a series of low pressure troughs will continue to cross the
area in the northwest flow under the trough aloft. The next
trough will arrive late tonight or early Monday morning. Showers
will be most likely at first at Keri, then may develop near
kcle and kyng in the morning or early afternoon. Brief MVFR
conditions are possible in any shower, perhaps very brief IFR
visibility. Thunder is not out of the question especially
across the snowbelt of extreme northeast Ohio and northwest PA.
Cannot rule out a shower elsewhere on Monday but the confidence
is too low to include it in the forecast at this time. West
winds will become gusty again on Monday.
Outlook...local non-VFR in showers Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Non-VFR possible again Thursday into Friday.
winds at their peak this afternoon across the central/eastern
nearshore and will diminish after sunset. Believe the winds will
stay below the 22 knot threshold across the western basin and have
dropped that part of the Small Craft Advisory early. Now small craft
advisories are a likely bet again tomorrow across the entire stretch
of nearshore waters with west-southwest flow of 20 to 25 knots. A
cold front Monday night will bring winds around to the west-
northwest. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and
lower lakes to the mid Atlantic from Tuesday through Thursday. The
next system will approach the Great Lakes for the weekend bringing
summertime weather and a southwest flow to Lake Erie for Thursday
Ohio...beach hazards statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
PA...beach hazards statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for